Improved methodology for determining the value of energy from distributed renewables using statistical analysis combined with normative scenarios
2014 (English)In: Energy Procedia / [ed] J. Yan, DJ. Lee, SK. Chou, U. Desideri, H. Li, Elsevier, 2014, Vol. 61, 1089-1092 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
The financial benefits of a distributed electric generation facility cannot be calculated without an expectation of the electricity's market value. Prediction of long-term future prices is a difficult but mandatory task, which is often reduced to constant annual prices with steady annual growth rates. This study provides a methodology for predicting electricity prices at an hourly resolution for long-term analysis, using the Swedish case as an example. It includes a statistical examination of historical data inspired by the meteorology sector to create a “typical year” of hourly price values. Future prices are calculated by applying annual rate changes to the typical year curve, using a monthly resolution to allow for seasonal variations. Rate changes are predicted using historical trends and current market conditions for near-term prices, and a normative scenario for mid- to long-term prices. The resulting methodology can be used in part or whole for any market in which historical data is available and a normative scenario created.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014. Vol. 61, 1089-1092 p.
Methodology, Prices, Long-term forecast, Investment analysis, Renewable energy, Normative scenario
Energy Systems Economics
Research subject Energy Technology; Economics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-164522DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.1029ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84922372667OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-164522DiVA: diva2:805983
International Conference on Applied Energy,ICAE2014,30 May – 2 June 2014,Taipei City, Taiwan
FunderSwedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256
QC 201505212015-04-172015-04-172015-05-21Bibliographically approved