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Improved methodology for determining the value of energy from distributed renewables using statistical analysis combined with normative scenarios
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2603-7595
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7354-6643
2014 (English)In: Energy Procedia / [ed] J. Yan, DJ. Lee, SK. Chou, U. Desideri, H. Li, Elsevier, 2014, Vol. 61, 1089-1092 p.Conference paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The financial benefits of a distributed electric generation facility cannot be calculated without an expectation of the electricity's market value. Prediction of long-term future prices is a difficult but mandatory task, which is often reduced to constant annual prices with steady annual growth rates. This study provides a methodology for predicting electricity prices at an hourly resolution for long-term analysis, using the Swedish case as an example. It includes a statistical examination of historical data inspired by the meteorology sector to create a “typical year” of hourly price values. Future prices are calculated by applying annual rate changes to the typical year curve, using a monthly resolution to allow for seasonal variations. Rate changes are predicted using historical trends and current market conditions for near-term prices, and a normative scenario for mid- to long-term prices. The resulting methodology can be used in part or whole for any market in which historical data is available and a normative scenario created.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2014. Vol. 61, 1089-1092 p.
Keyword [en]
Methodology, Prices, Long-term forecast, Investment analysis, Renewable energy, Normative scenario
National Category
Energy Systems Economics
Research subject
Energy Technology; Economics
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-164522DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.1029ScopusID: 2-s2.0-84922372667OAI: diva2:805983
International Conference on Applied Energy,ICAE2014,30 May – 2 June 2014,Taipei City, Taiwan
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256

QC 20150521

Available from: 2015-04-17 Created: 2015-04-17 Last updated: 2015-05-21Bibliographically approved

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