Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming
SMHI, Research Department, Climate research - Rossby Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6495-1038
Show others and affiliations
2014 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, ISSN 1748-9326, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 9, no 3, 034006Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A global warming of 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 degrees C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North-South (West-East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models' climate sensitivity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 9, no 3, 034006
Keyword [en]
regional climate change, extreme events, European climate
National Category
Climate Research
Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-124DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006ISI: 000334068000009OAI: diva2:801772
Available from: 2015-04-10 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2016-05-25Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1685 kB)32 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1685 kBChecksum SHA-512
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Kjellström, ErikNikulin, GrigoryTeichmann, Claas
By organisation
Climate research - Rossby Centre
In the same journal
Environmental Research Letters
Climate Research

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 32 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 74 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link