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A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
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2014 (English)In: Climatic Change, ISSN 0165-0009, E-ISSN 1573-1480, Vol. 122, no 1-2, 271-282 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 122, no 1-2, 271-282 p.
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Climate Research
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URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-167DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2ISI: 000328622900021OAI: diva2:798188
Available from: 2015-03-26 Created: 2015-03-26 Last updated: 2015-03-31Bibliographically approved

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Kjellstrom, Erik
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Climate research - Rossby Centre
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