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Avancerad scenarioanalys för ambulansplanering
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Information Technology, Division of Systems and Control.
2015 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Advanced Scenario Analysis for Ambulance Planning (English)
Abstract [en]

This paper describes the development of a simulation model for the ambulance flow in the Västra Götalands-region of Sweden, and an analysis tool for the output of the simulation model. The aim of the simulation model was to be able to evaluate the outcome from changes in the ambulance operations, such as a reorganization of ambulances or an increase in intensity of the ambulance calls. This evaluation is meant to serve as decision support for the strategic planning of the ambulance operations. The analysis tool was developed to visualize the abundant geographical data produced by the simulation model in a meaningful way. The simulation model was validated against historical data which showed that the dispatch time for the highest prioritized ambulance calls corresponds well with historical data. However, other metrics indicates that further modelling might be required to increase the accuracy of the simulation model. Most notable, ambulance dispatches for ambulance calls of lower priority differed significantly from historical data. Specific modifications to the model to correct this difference are mentioned. Finally, there are some suggestions for improving the accuracy of the simulation model and a brief discussion about future development.

Abstract [sv]

Denna uppsats behandlar utvecklingen av en simuleringsmodell över ambulansverksamheten i Västra Götalands-regionen samt ett analys verktyg som visualiserar den geografiska data som produceras av simuleringsmodellen. Syftet med simuleringsmodellen var att kunna undersöka hur ambulansverksamheten påverkas av olika förändringar, till exempel en ökning av antalet nödsamtal eller en omstationering av ambulansfordon. Speciellt intressant är att mäta vilken påverkan dessa förändringar har på framkörningstiden (tiden från att ett samtal ankommer tills att ambulansen anländer på plats). Verktyget är i framtiden tänkt att användas som beslutsstöd för den strategiska planeringen av ambulansverksamheten. Simuleringsmodellen validerades mot historiskt data, vilket visade delvis goda resultat. Framför allt överrensstämmer framkörningstiden för de högst prioriterade ambulansärendena väl med historisk data. För lägre prioriterade ambulansärenden kvarstår dock systematiska skillnader mellan simulerad- och historisk framkörningstid. Möjliga orsaker till dessa skillnader diskuteras och förslag ges på hur man kan korrigera detta. Uppsatsen avslutas med förslag på hur simuleringsmodellen kan förbättras samt en kort diskussion om framtida utveckling.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2015. , 29 p.
Series
UPTEC F, ISSN 1401-5757 ; 15001
Keyword [en]
logistics, simulation, decision support systems, health
National Category
Computer Science Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-241486OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-241486DiVA: diva2:780630
External cooperation
Carmenta AB
Educational program
Master Programme in Engineering Physics
Presentation
2013-10-10, 2004, Ångströmslaboratoriet, Uppsala, 16:15 (Swedish)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2015-02-02 Created: 2015-01-12 Last updated: 2015-02-02Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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