Development of surrogate measures for crash-based safety estimation
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference Road Safety on Four Continents: Beijing, China. 15-17 May 2013, Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2013Conference paper (Other academic)
The paper investigates the validity of promising surrogate measures by investigating the link between such measures and safety. Such measures, if shown to be valid, can be used in two ways: a) to evaluate a newly implemented measure for which data can be quickly assembled to estimate the effect on the safety surrogate and, by implication, the effect on expected crashes, and b) to estimate the safety effects of a proposed change by first estimating the effect on the safety surrogate and then relating that outcome to the expected change in crashes. The idea is not new. In fact, several researchers have been working on various complementary pieces of the puzzle. The key missing link is in developing measures that can in fact be linked explicitly to safety as manifested in expected numbers of crashes. In addressing this void, two complementary sets of models are explored – models to relate surrogate measures to design features and models to relate crashes to surrogate measures. The first set successfully modeled simulated conflicts for urban signalized intersections estimated from micro-simulation software, complementing the models for measured and predicted speeds for roundabouts that have been developed in our recently published research. Models relating these surrogate measures to observed crashes suggest that there is promise in the approach of using certain surrogate measures for crash-based safety estimation.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2013.
Conflict, Evaluation (assessment), Risk, Prediction, Junction, Before and after study, Accident prevention
Research subject X RSXC; 80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 813 Road: Accident risk
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-7383OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-7383DiVA: diva2:759737
16th International Conference Road Safety on Four Continents. Beijing, China (RS4C 2013). 15-17 May 2013