Predicting Drivers’ Crash Risk Based-on Previous Crash History
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 16th International Conference Road Safety on Four Continents: Beijing, China. 15-17 May 2013, Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2013Conference paper (Other academic)
Crash-prone drivers should be effectively targeted for various safety education and regulation programs because their over-involvement in crashes presents a big adverse effect on highway safety. By analyzing seven-years of crash data from Louisiana, this paper investigates crash-prone drivers’ characteristics and estimates their risk to have crashes in the seventh year based on these drivers' crash history of the past six years.
The analysis results show that quite a few drivers repeatedly had crashes; seven drivers had 13 crashes in seven years; and the maximum number of crashes occurring in a single year to a single driver is eight. Actually, the 5% of drivers who had multiple crashes were responsible for 35% of the crashes that occurred in the seven years in Louisiana. Crash injury rate is also higher for drivers with multiple crashes. The probability of having crash(es) in any given year is closely related to a driver’s crash history; less than 4% of drivers with no crash in the previous six years; and slightly higher than 30% for drivers with nine or more crashes in the previous six years. There are variations in drivers’ age, gender, crash contribution factors, and type of crashes by the number of crashes.
Based on the results, several suggestions are made on how to improve roadway safety through reducing crashes committed by drivers with much higher crash risk as identified by the analysis.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut, 2013.
Accident proneness, Statistics, Analysis (math), Characteristics
Research subject X RSXC; 80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 812 Road: Collation of accident statistics; 80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 841 Road: Road user behaviour
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-7341OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-7341DiVA: diva2:759067
16th International Conference Road Safety on Four Continents. Beijing, China (RS4C 2013). 15-17 May 2013