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Short-term regulating capacity and operational patterns of The Lule River with large wind power penetration
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity.
2014 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The growing share of installed wind power in the Swedish electricity system has

caused concerns whether the available regulating power will be sufficient. Several

studies have examined the need of regulating power using both statistical and

modelling approaches. However, there is a risk that some aspects of the short-term

regulation of hydropower might have been missed.

By using one of Vattenfall’s hydropower planning tools, the short-term operation of

The Lule River has been simulated with an increasing penetration of wind power. The

tool includes detailed models of reservoirs, generating units including efficiency curves

and start/stop costs. By introducing a day-by-day simulation with a seven-day window

price forecast, updated with a new wind forecast for each iteration, a 21-days

scenario has been simulated. Transmission limits are disregarded and the thermal

production is reduced with the average wind production.

To quantify and compare the regulation capacity, the regulation factor is introduced.

It reflects the ability to utilise high-price hours and considering that the need of

regulating power for the short-term perspective is reflected in the price it will also

reflect the regulation capacity.

It is shown that the regulating factor is correlated to the discharge factor,whichis the

relation between the maximum discharge to the average statistical discharge for a

plant. A high discharge factor provides the flexibility to utilise the fluctuations in price.

The discharge factor is adapted to the plants placement in the reach, accounting for

both reservoirs located upstream and downstream, especially for The Lule River

which has been designed to regulate for the fluctuations in the load. The flexibility

required by the rest of the Nordic rivers is quantified for future studies.

It is concluded that The Lule River is able to meet some of the fluctuations of wind

power production due to the overcapacity ininstalled power. The production can, at

the expense of decreased efficiency of the generating units, alter the production to

suit a more fluctuating price.It is important to emphasise that The Lule River alone

cannot balance a large penetration of wind power.

To fully take into account the effects of a large penetration of wind power the study

must be expanded to include more scenarios. The study should include different types

of hydrological prerequisites and the seasonal variations in power production as well

as additional rivers.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 46 p.
UPTEC F, ISSN 1401-5757 ; 14026
Keyword [en]
Flexible generation, forecast error, HOTSHOT, hydropower planning, intermittent renewable energy sources, profit optimisation, regulation factor, short-term regulation, short-term production planning, The Lule River
Keyword [sv]
Flexibel kraft, förnyelsebara intermittenta energikällor, HOTSHOT, korttids reglering, korttids produktionsplanering, Lule älv, prognosfel, reglerfaktor, vattenkraftsplanering, vinstmaximering
National Category
Energy Systems
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-230972OAI: diva2:742524
External cooperation
Educational program
Master Programme in Engineering Physics
Available from: 2014-09-11 Created: 2014-09-01 Last updated: 2014-09-11Bibliographically approved

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