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Wind Power and Natural Disasters
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences, Electricity. (Wind Power)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4921-8345
2014 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Wind power can be related to natural disasters in several ways. This licentiate thesis gives some background and introduces four papers devoted to two aspects of this relation. The first section looks into how small-scale wind energy converters (WECs) could be used to generate power after a natural disaster. For this application diesel generators are the most common solution today, but there would be several advantages of replacing these systems. A study of off-grid systems with battery storage at 32 sites showed that photovoltaics (PV) were more suitable than WECs. The results were confirmed by a study for the entire globe; PV outperformed WECs at most sites when it comes to small-scale application. This is especially true for areas with a high disaster risk. Hybrid systems comprising both PV and WECs are however interesting at higher latitudes. For the Swedish case, it is shown that gridded data from a freely available meteorological model, combined with a statistical model, give good estimates of the mean wind speed at 10 meters above ground. This methodology of estimating the mean wind speed can be used when there is no time for a proper wind measurement campaign.

The second section is directed towards wind power variability and integration. The results presented in the thesis are intended as a basis for future studies on how a substantially increased wind power capacity affects the electric grid in terms of stability, grid reinforcement requirements, increased balancing needs etc. A review of variability and forecastability for non-dispatchable renewable energy sources was performed together with researchers from the solar, wave and tidal power fields. Although a lot of research is conducted in these areas, it was concluded that more studies on combinations of the sources would be desirable. The disciplines could also learn from each other and benefit from the use of more unified methods and metrics. A model of aggregated hourly wind power production has finally been developed. The model is based on reanalysis data from a meteorological model and detailed information on Swedish WECs. The model proved very successful, both in terms of low prediction errors and in the match of probability density function for power and step changes of power. 

Abstract [sv]

Vindkraft kan relateras till naturkatastrofer på flera olika sätt. Den här licentiat\-avhandlingen ger bakgrund till och introducerar fyra artiklar som beskriver två aspekter av detta samband. I den första avdelningen undersöks hur småskalig vindkraft skulle kunna användas för att generera el efter en naturkatastrof. I dagsläget är det dieselaggregat som används för detta ändamål, men det skulle finnas stora fördelar med att övergå till förnybara system. En studie av 32 platser (myndigheten MSB:s utlandsstationeringar augusti 2012) visade att solceller var mer lämpade än vindkraftverk. Resultaten bekräftades av en studie för hela världen; solceller ger billigare system än småskaliga vindkraftverk för de flesta platser, inte minst om man tittar på områden som är utsatta för naturkatastrofer. Hybridsystem med både solceller och vindkraftverk var dock intressanta på högre breddgrader. För Sverige så visas det att data från en fritt tillgängliga meteorologisk modell tillsammans med en statistisk korrigering beroende på terrängtyp ger bra uppskattningar av medelvinden på 10 meters höjd. Den föreslagna metodiken kan vara användbar som ett komplement till vindmätningar eller om det inte finns tid eller möjlighet till en riktig mätkampanj.

Den andra avdelningen är inriktad mot vindens variabilitet och integrering av vindkraft i kraftsystemet. De resultat som presenteras i denna avhandling är tänkta som en bas för framtida studier av hur en kraftigt ökad andel vindkraft påverkar elsystemet med avseende på stabilitet, nödvändiga nätförstärkningar, ökade krav på balanskraft etc. En översiktsstudie av variabilitet och prognosbarhet för intermittenta förnybara energikällor gjordes tillsammans med forskare inom sol-, våg och tidvattenkraft. Även om mycket forskning pågår inom dessa områden så var en slutsats att mer studier för kombinationer av olika källor skulle vara önskvärt. Forskare inom de olika disciplinerna skulle också kunna lära från varandra och dra fördel av gemensamma metoder och mått. Slutligen har en modell av aggregerad timvis vindkraftproduktion tagits fram. Modellen baseras på data från en meteorologisk modell samt detaljerad information om vindkraftverk i Sverige. Modellen visade sig vara mycket träffsäker, både vad gäller låga prediktionsfel och i överensstämmelse av sannolikhetsfördelning av effekt och stegförändring av timvis effekt.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Uppsala universitet, 2014. , 44 p.
Series
UURIE / Uppsala University, Department of Engineering Sciences, ISSN 0349-8352 ; 337-14L
Keyword [en]
Wind power, Natural disasters, Hybrid energy system, Meteorological model, Statistical model, Variability, Wind power integration
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-225573OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-225573DiVA: diva2:721570
Presentation
(English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2014-06-09 Created: 2014-06-04 Last updated: 2014-06-09Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Wind Energy Converters and Photovoltaics for Generation of Electricity after Natural Disasters
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Wind Energy Converters and Photovoltaics for Generation of Electricity after Natural Disasters
2015 (English)In: Geografiska Annaler. Series A, Physical Geography, ISSN 0435-3676, E-ISSN 1468-0459, Vol. 97, no 1, 9-23 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

During recovery and reconstruction after a natural disaster, an autonomous power supply might be needed for an extended period of time. In this work, the feasibility of using small-scale wind power and battery storage for power supply is evaluated and compared with systems containing photovoltaics. The investment cost per yearly produced kWh and for an optimized energy system supplying small loads (2 or 20 kW peak) has been calculated for 32 sites, predominantly in Africa and the Middle East. The sites represent foreign activities of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency at the end of 2012.

Since wind speed measurement series often have a lot of missing data, autoregressive moving average models were trained and used to generate hourly time series of wind speed. This methodology proved robust, even when data availability was very low or when measurements were only taken every third hour. The results of the simulations show that photovoltaic/battery systems outperform wind/battery systems at all evaluated sites. This can be explained by lower investment cost per yearly produced kWh and smoother daily/weekly power output over the year for the photovoltaic system. The proportion of wind power for optimized systems comprising wind, photovoltaics and battery bank is generally very low and the system cost is almost identical to the corresponding photovoltaic/battery systems. In conclusion, at lower latitudes and with little time for a proper wind measurement campaign, photovoltaics should be the primary candidate for replacing or complementing conventional diesel generators.

National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Science of Electricity
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-225864 (URN)10.1111/geoa.12052 (DOI)000350500400002 ()
Available from: 2014-06-09 Created: 2014-06-09 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
2. Modelling the Swedish Wind Power Production Using MERRA Reanalysis Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling the Swedish Wind Power Production Using MERRA Reanalysis Data
2015 (English)In: Renewable energy, ISSN 0960-1481, E-ISSN 1879-0682, Vol. 76, no 4, 717-725 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The variability of wind power will be an increasing challenge for the power system as wind penetration grows and thus needs to be studied. In this paper a model for generation of hourly aggregated wind power time series is described and evaluated. The model is based on MERRA reanalysis data and information on wind energy converters in Sweden. Installed capacity during the studied period (2007–2012) increased from around 600 to over 3500 MW. When comparing with data from the Swedish TSO, the mean absolute error in hourly energy was 2.9% and RMS error was 3.8%. The model was able to adequately capture step changes and also yielded a nicely corresponding distribution of hourly energy. Two key factors explaining the good results were the use of a globally optimised power curve smoothing parameter and the correction of seasonal and diurnal bias.

Because of bottlenecks in the Swedish transmission system it is relevant to model certain areas separately. For the two southern areas the MAE were 3.7 and 4.2%. The northern area was harder to model and had a MAE of 6.5%. This might be explained by a low installed capacity, more complex terrain and icing losses not captured in the model.

National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Science of Electricity
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-225868 (URN)10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.085 (DOI)000348955400075 ()
Available from: 2014-06-09 Created: 2014-06-09 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
3. Variability Assessment and Forecasting of Renewables: A Review for Solar, Wind, Wave and Tidal Resources
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Variability Assessment and Forecasting of Renewables: A Review for Solar, Wind, Wave and Tidal Resources
Show others...
2015 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 44, 356-375 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Energy Engineering Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Science of Electricity; Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-225870 (URN)10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.019 (DOI)000351324300025 ()
Available from: 2014-06-09 Created: 2014-06-09 Last updated: 2017-12-05
4. Using the MIUU Model for Prediction of Mean Wind Speed at Low Height
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using the MIUU Model for Prediction of Mean Wind Speed at Low Height
2015 (English)In: Wind Engineering: The International Journal of Wind Power, ISSN 0309-524X, E-ISSN 2048-402X, Vol. 39, no 5, 507-518 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Science of Electricity
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-225873 (URN)10.1260/0309-524X.39.5.507 (DOI)000366860200003 ()
External cooperation:
Available from: 2014-06-09 Created: 2014-06-09 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved

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