Utvärdering av Transportstyrelsens flygtrafiksmodeller
Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
The Swedish Transport Agency has for a long time collected data on a monthly basis for different variables that are used to make predictions, short projections as well as longer projections. They have used SAS for producing statistical models in air transport. The model with the largest value of coefficient of determination is the method that has been used for a long time. The Swedish Transport Agency felt it was time for an evaluation of their models and methods of how projections is estimated, they would also explore the possibilities to use different, completely new models for forecasting air travel. This Bachelor thesis examines how the Holt-Winters method does compare with SARIMA, error terms such as RMSE, MAPE, R2, AIC and BIC will be compared between the methods.
The results which have been produced showing that there may be a risk that the Holt-Winters models adepts a bit too well in a few variables in which Holt-Winters method has been adapted. But overall the Holt-Winters method generates better forecasts .
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. , 56 p.
Regression, tidsserier, Sarima, Luftfartsverket, Holt-Winters
Probability Theory and Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-106786ISRN: LIU-IDA/STAT-G--14/003—SEOAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-106786DiVA: diva2:719079
Subject / course
Program in Statistics and Data Analysis
2013-06-06, 16:43 (Swedish)
Avbryt / Spara utkast2014-05-232014-05-222014-05-23Bibliographically approved