Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
The Impact of Movements and Animal Density on Continental Scale Cattle Disease Outbreaks in the United States
Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA .
University of Warwick, England .
Linköping University, Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Theoretical Biology. Linköping University, The Institute of Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7856-2925
Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA .
Show others and affiliations
2014 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 9, no 3, 0091724- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Globalization has increased the potential for the introduction and spread of novel pathogens over large spatial scales necessitating continental-scale disease models to guide emergency preparedness. Livestock disease spread models, such as those for the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United Kingdom, represent some of the best case studies of large-scale disease spread. However, generalization of these models to explore disease outcomes in other systems, such as the United Statess cattle industry, has been hampered by differences in system size and complexity and the absence of suitable livestock movement data. Here, a unique database of US cattle shipments allows estimation of synthetic movement networks that inform a near-continental scale disease model of a potential FMD-like (i.e., rapidly spreading) epidemic in US cattle. The largest epidemics may affect over one-third of the US and 120,000 cattle premises, but cattle movement restrictions from infected counties, as opposed to national movement moratoriums, are found to effectively contain outbreaks. Slow detection or weak compliance may necessitate more severe state-level bans for similar control. Such results highlight the role of large-scale disease models in emergency preparedness, particularly for systems lacking comprehensive movement and outbreak data, and the need to rapidly implement multi-scale contingency plans during a potential US outbreak.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Library of Science , 2014. Vol. 9, no 3, 0091724- p.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
URN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-106685DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091724ISI: 000333677000026OAI: diva2:718427
Available from: 2014-05-21 Created: 2014-05-19 Last updated: 2016-08-31

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(787 kB)310 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 787 kBChecksum SHA-512
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Lindström, TomWennergren, Uno
By organisation
Theoretical BiologyThe Institute of Technology
In the same journal
Engineering and Technology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 310 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 64 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link