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Depletion rate analysis of fields and regions: a methodological foundation
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
2014 (English)In: Fuel, ISSN 0016-2361, Vol. 121, no 4, 95-108 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution.

Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2–3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier “peak oil” forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2014. Vol. 121, no 4, 95-108 p.
Keyword [en]
depletion rate analysis, oil depletion, oil production modelling, peak oil, decline curve analysis
National Category
Energy Systems Other Environmental Engineering Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Geology Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-214311DOI: 10.1016/j.fuel.2013.12.024ISI: 000331542900012OAI: diva2:684651
Available from: 2014-01-08 Created: 2014-01-08 Last updated: 2014-04-16Bibliographically approved

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Höök, Mikael
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