En modell för att prognostisera ungdomars körkortstagande
2006 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)Alternative title
A model for forecasting young people's propensity to take driving licence (English)
The propensity of young people to take driving licence was rather consistent up until 1990. Around 1990, the behaviour of young people changed in many respects. They continued living at home for a longer period of time, they became established later and with less favourable conditions of employment in working life, they studied to a greater extent and, above all, studied longer, they started families later. A sign of the times was that they also put off taking driving licence. Searches of the literature have shown that hardly any models have been presented that describe the taking of driving licence. A model produced earlier at VTI has functioned as a basis in this study. Separate models of the propensity to take driving licence have been estimated for each age group between 18 and 24. Independent variables in the model are a driving licence cost index and the proportion of 24-year olds who have post upper-secondary school education. Official statistics published concerning the taking of driving licence at various ages show, for example, the proportion of 18-year olds who have taken a driving licence during the calendar year in which they attain the age of 18. If one wants data regarding how many took a driving licence before their 19th birthday, special analyses are required. An estimation can be made based on the result of the model, but in the report a more ambitious attempt is also presented.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: VTI., VTI rapport 511 , 2006. , 37 p.
VTI rapport, ISSN 0347-6030
Driving licence, Adolescent, Probability, Prediction, Model, Calculation, Statistical analysis, Man, Woman, Age
Transport Systems and Logistics
Research subject 80 Road: Traffic safety and accidents, 843 Road: Driver training and road user education
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-6394OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-6394DiVA: diva2:675271