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The composition and use of the Swedish car fleet: Formulation of a forecasting system
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4680-4795
Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.
2005 (English)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [sv]

Model-based forecasts of future emissions are important tools for finding

strategies to reach the Swedish transport policy objective concerning effect

on climate and air pollution. In order for the calculated emissions to reflect

the actual situation, input data on kilometrage, vehicle types and vehicle

ages must be representative of the region of interest. High-quality forecasts

of these variables are therefore of great importance when estimating future

emissions. This report proposes a forecasting model system for the

compositions and use of the Swedish car fleet, based on experiences from

existing models in the literature. The system operates on two levels, an

aggregated (national or regional) level and a disaggregated (household or

personal) level. Forecasts of the total number of cars and total kilometrage

are provided from the aggregated models whereas the disaggregated models

provide the distribution of cars of different types and ages and the

distribution of kilometrage over the same classification of cars. These

results are then combined to give the final outcomes: the number and

kilometrage of cars of different types and ages.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: VTI., VTI rapport 518A , 2005. , 42 p.
Keyword [en]
Emission, Forecast, Model, Fleet of vehicles, Car, Vehicle ownership, Choice, Mathematical model
Research subject
Road: Transport, society, policy and planning, Road: Environment
URN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-6386OAI: diva2:675263
Available from: 2013-12-03 Created: 2013-12-03 Last updated: 2016-02-25

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Forsman, ÅsaEngström, Inger
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