During the months of June and July in the summer of 2000, central Norrland
was hit by several storms that caused flooding in many areas. In the middle
of July, the risk of land slippage was considered so great that several
stretches of railway line were closed to traffic. In December 2001 Stockholm
suffered a severe snowstorm that had serious consequences for railway
traffic, with many departures being cancelled. These are just two indications
of the vulnerability of the railway transport system.
The aim of this paper is to develop a framework to be able to analyse the
vulnerability of the railway transport system. A formal definition of a
railway transport system's vulnerability is the probability of the system's
capacity falling to such a level that traffic is cancelled or is so delayed
that the benefit of the transport to travellers or goods customers is not
A model of the vulnerability of the railway transport system must show how
often capacity is so reduced that severe disruptions occur, e.g. that traffic
flow can no longer be maintained, or that traffic must be cancelled, and what
the reason is.
The model's structure consists of two parts. The first part describes the
reliability of the capacity and the second how the ability to maintain
traffic of acceptable quality is affected by changes in capacity.
Linköping: Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut., VTI meddelande 932 , 2002.
Swedish, Sweden, Railway, Risk, Transport network, Systems analysis, Capacity, Error, Cause, Model, Planning, Accident