Utvärdering av projektet Nationell samverkan mot alkohol och droger i trafiken enligt Skelleftemodellen: samhällsekonomisk bedömning
2009 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)Alternative title
Joint national action against drunk and drugged drivers according to the Skellefte Model : a socio-economic assessment (English)
The benefit being studied in this socio-economic evaluation pertains to the decrease achieved in the number of traffic accidents involving drunk drivers. Roughly 2% of those who are charged with drunk driving will be involved in a traffic accident while drunk within 10 years after being found guilty of drunk driving. This figure could be reduced were it possible to successfully reduce drug and alcohol use by these perpetrators after they have been found guilty. Acceptance of the offer made under the Skellefte Model is presumed to have such an effect. The effect of the Skellefte Model differs from individual to individual. It is assumed that the Skellefte Model will influence an individual charged with drunk driving to refrain for longer periods from driving while drunk. This would in turn decrease the likelihood of the individual being involved in an accident while drunk from 2% to some lower level, which would be determined by how much longer such periods last, which would in turn entail fewer drug- or alcohol-related accidents. Two scenarios have been studied; one in which the median increase in the length of time without a recurrence of drunk driving equals one week, and another where the median period is one month. A decrease in accidents represents a social benefit. This benefit must be weighed against the costs in the form of person-hours expended in extending the offer to suspected drunk drivers and arranging an interview. These costs have been estimated based on the questionnaire responses. The calculations indicate that if the effect is that the median increase in time without driving drunk equals one week, then each interviewed suspected drunk driver represents a socio-economic loss of roughly SEK 6, while a median time of one month yields a gain of nearly SEK 82. If the median increase in time without drunk driving is one month, a socio-economic gain is achieved, although no fixed costs have been factored into the analysis. The magnitude of the fixed costs ultimately associated with the Skellefte Model is unclear. Two scenarios have been studied, one corresponding to one full-time worker (taking into account earnings for one year and all overheads), another corresponding to two such workers. To cover these costs, a given number of suspected drunk drivers must be questioned annually in accordance with the Skellefte Model. Two scenarios have been studied, with the offer made to 12,000 people and 24,000 people, respectively. Socio-economic calculations have been performed for each combination of scenarios. We find that the socio-economic benefit is positive both when the median increase in time without a recurrence of drunk driving equals at least one month and for the alternatives in which 24,000 suspected drunk drivers are questioned annually or the fixed costs correspond to one full-time worker.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Linköping: VTI., VTI notat 5-2009 , 2009. , 24 p.
Drunken driving, Drugs, Recidivist, Offence, Prevention, Social cost, Cost benefit analysis, Accident prevention, Evaluation
Research subject Road: Traffic safety and accidents, Road: Alcohol and drugs
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:vti:diva-1699OAI: oai:DiVA.org:vti-1699DiVA: diva2:670412