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Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. China University of Petroleum - Beijing.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
2013 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 60, 204-214 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 60, 204-214 p.
Keyword [en]
Chinese coal, production modelling, resource/reserve classification
National Category
Energy Systems Geology Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Mineral and Mine Engineering
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-207782DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.07.031ISI: 000326773400023OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-207782DiVA: diva2:649510
Available from: 2013-09-18 Created: 2013-09-18 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved

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