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Quantitative risk analysis: Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
Chalmers University of Technology.
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.
2013 (English)In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, Vol. 58, 98-112 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.

The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.

The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 58, 98-112 p.
Keyword [en]
control option, influence diagram, piracy, quantified risk management, ship security analysis
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Vehicle Engineering Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-3800DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2013.04.003ISI: 000320298000012OAI: diva2:622495
Available from: 2013-05-22 Created: 2013-05-22 Last updated: 2015-02-11Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk-based ship security analysis: a decision-support approach
2015 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Alternative title[sv]
Riskanalys inom fartygsskydd : en analysstrategi för bättre beslutsunderlag
Abstract [en]

The protection of shipping does not come without hazards and threats for military forces, individual civilian ship operators and crews. With particular focus on security threats, this thesis is about how to prepare for such operations without introducing unnecessary risks, i.e., supporting conscious risk-taking related to ship security. It examines both civilian and military aspects of maritime security and therefore draws from the experience of both fields.

Maritime safety regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicised and therefore less transparent. Unfortunately, comprehensive studies of ship security risk are rare. Moreover, applying risk-based approaches to security areas requires special considerations, and the limited research in this field has led to a knowledge gap.

To reduce the identified challenges with respect to security risk analysis, the goal of this thesis is to improve security decision support by defining an approach to ship security analysis. To increase overall safety, this approach must facilitate compromises between traditional maritime safety and maritime security. Accordingly, the objective is to develop an approach that is both systematic and gives the decision maker an appropriate picture of the security risks. To examine the requirements for a security decision-support approach, the work in the appended papers studies both threats to naval vessels and the security threat posed to commercial vessels by pirates. The results of the studies can be used to further develop military doctrines and civilian guidelines.

This study shows that the description and quantification of the (concept of) operation in the risk analysis is central for implementing both security and naval ship survivability. In addition, the crew’s risk perception, procedural safeguards and how the implemented risk controls are perceived have an important role not only in risk analysis but also in deciding the effectiveness of implemented controls. It is also concluded that only using expected values—not collecting and using uncertainties—in the analysis can lead to misleading results. Therefore, the uncertainty treatment offered by a quantitative approach is crucial for risk understanding, especially if the aim is to find robust control options or to support the development of a resilient culture.

Abstract [sv]

Sjöfartsskydd bedrivs idag både av militära styrkor och civila redare. Det är inte ofarligt, men nödvändigt och viktigt. Med fokus på säkerhetshot undersöker denna avhandling hur fartyg ska förbereda sig inför potentiellt farlig verksamhet, det vill säga hur man skapar ett lämpligt riskmedvetande i förhållande till fartygsskydd. I avhandlingen undersöks både militära och civila förhållanden och därför kan erfarenheter från båda områdena användas.

Inom sjösäkerhet har regler, rekommendationer och metoder systematiskt utvecklats under många år. Inom sjöfartsskydd är däremot frågorna inte lika belysta och angreppssätten och erfarenheterna är ofta dolda bakom hemligstämplar. Det är rimligt att anta att riskanalysmetoder från andra områden kan användas även för sjöfartsskyddsanalyser, men inte utan att metoderna anpassas till områdets specifika behov. Därför leder den begränsade forskningen och dokumentationen inom området till ett kunskapsgap.

För att reducera de identifierade utmaningarna inom sjöfartsskydd undersöks i avhandling hur en lämplig analysstrategi för fartygsskydd ser ut. För att öka den övergripande säkerheten för de analyserade verksamheterna ska metoden kunna stötta nödvändiga kompromisser mellan sjösäkerhet och fartygsskydd. Syftet är att utveckla en analysstrategi som är systematisk och som ger beslutsfattaren en lämplig bild av de aktuella riskerna. För att undersöka detta område behandlas i avhandlingen både hot mot militära fartyg och hotet mot civila fartyg från sjöröveri. Därför kan resultatet användas för att utveckla både militära doktriner och civila riktlinjer.

Studien visar att hur fartygets verksamhet beskrivs i analysen är centralt för resultatet och därmed förståelsen av riskerna. Inte bara skyddslösningar i sig, utan även besättningens riskförståelse och hur det implementerade skyddet förstås måste inkluderas i analysen.  Hur det implementerade skyddet förstås kommer också i stor utsträckning att påverka effektiviteten hos implementerade åtgärder. I avhandlingen konstateras också att om analysen görs utan att ta hänsyn till de osäkerheter som finns kan det innebära att resultatet är missvisande. Därför är den osäkerhetsanalys som är möjlig med ett kvantitativt angreppssätt nödvändig, speciellt om syftet är att identifiera robusta skyddsåtgärder.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Chalmers tekniska högskola, 2015. 73 p.
, Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola, Ny serie, ISSN 0346-718X ; 3808
naval ship, piracy, risk-based, risk control options, ship security analysis, survivability, uncertainty analysis, militära fartyg, sjöröveri, riskanalys, sjöfartsskydd, överlevnadsförmåga
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Mathematical Analysis Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-5271 (URN)978-91-7597-127-8 (ISBN)
Public defence
2015-03-12, Lecture hall Alfa, house Saga, Hörselgången 4, Lindholmen, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Available from: 2015-02-11 Created: 2015-02-03 Last updated: 2015-04-08Bibliographically approved

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