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Urban Growth Modeling Based on Land-use Changes and Road Network Expansion
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Urban Planning and Environment, Geodesy and Geoinformatics.
2013 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A city is considered as a complex system. It consists of numerous interactivesub-systems and is affected by diverse factors including governmental landpolicies, population growth, transportation infrastructure, and market behavior.Land use and transportation systems are considered as the two most importantsubsystems determining urban form and structure in the long term. Meanwhile,urban growth is one of the most important topics in urban studies, and its maindriving forces are population growth and transportation development. Modelingand simulation are believed to be powerful tools to explore the mechanisms ofurban evolution and provide planning support in growth management.

The overall objective of the thesis is to analyze and model urban growth basedon the simulation of land-use changes and the modeling of road networkexpansion. Since most previous urban growth models apply fixed transportnetworks, the evolution of road networks was particularly modeled. Besides,urban growth modeling is an interdisciplinary field, so this thesis made bigefforts to integrate knowledge and methods from other scientific and technicalareas to advance geographical information science, especially the aspects ofnetwork analysis and modeling.

A multi-agent system was applied to model urban growth in Toronto whenpopulation growth is considered as being the main driving factor of urbangrowth. Agents were adopted to simulate different types of interactiveindividuals who promote urban expansion. The multi-agent model with spatiotemporalallocation criterions was shown effectiveness in simulation. Then, anurban growth model for long-term simulation was developed by integratingland-use development with procedural road network modeling. The dynamicidealized traffic flow estimated by the space syntax metric was not only used forselecting major roads, but also for calculating accessibility in land-usesimulation. The model was applied in the city centre of Stockholm andconfirmed the reciprocal influence between land use and street network duringthe long-term growth.

To further study network growth modeling, a novel weighted network model,involving nonlinear growth and neighboring connections, was built from theperspective of promising complex networks. Both mathematical analysis andnumerical simulation were examined in the evolution process, and the effects ofneighboring connections were particular investigated to study the preferentialattachment mechanisms in the evolution. Since road network is a weightedplanar graph, the growth model for urban street networks was subsequentlymodeled. It succeeded in reproducing diverse patterns and each pattern wasexamined by a series of measures. The similarity between the properties of derived patterns and empirical studies implies that there is a universal growthmechanism in the evolution of urban morphology.

To better understand the complicated relationship between land use and roadnetwork, centrality indices from different aspects were fully analyzed in a casestudy over Stockholm. The correlation coefficients between different land-usetypes and road network centralities suggest that various centrality indices,reflecting human activities in different ways, can capture land development andconsequently influence urban structure.

The strength of this thesis lies in its interdisciplinary approaches to analyze andmodel urban growth. The integration of ‘bottom-up’ land-use simulation androad network growth model in urban growth simulation is the major contribution.The road network growth model in terms of complex network science is anothercontribution to advance spatial network modeling within the field of GIScience.The works in this thesis vary from a novel theoretical weighted network modelto the particular models of land use, urban street network and hybrid urbangrowth, and to the specific applications and statistical analysis in real cases.These models help to improve our understanding of urban growth phenomenaand urban morphological evolution through long-term simulations. Thesimulation results can further support urban planning and growth management.The study of hybrid models integrating methods and techniques frommultidisciplinary fields has attracted a lot attention and still needs constantefforts in near future.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2013. , x, 96 p.
Series
Trita-SOM , ISSN 1653-6126 ; 2013:03
Keyword [en]
urban growth / sprawl, land-use simulation, multi-agent system, road network pattern, space syntax, complex networks, evolving weighted networks, nonlinear growth, local world, hierarchy, self-organized, local optimization, morphological changes, street centrality, adaptive kernel density estimation, dual representation
National Category
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-122182ISBN: 978-91-7501-775-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-122182DiVA: diva2:621238
Public defence
2013-05-27, D41, Lindstedtsvägen 17 1tr, Huvudbyggnaden , KTH, Stockholm, 13:30 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20130514

Available from: 2013-05-14 Created: 2013-05-14 Last updated: 2013-05-14Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Multi-agent Simulation for Modeling Urban Sprawl in the Greater Toronto Area
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Multi-agent Simulation for Modeling Urban Sprawl in the Greater Toronto Area
2010 (English)In: 13th AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science 2010, 2010Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The use of Multi-agent Systems/Simulations (MAS) can help to represent humanenvironmentinteractions in dealing with complex land-use problems by examining how differententities influence the process of land development. In this paper, we simulate the urban growth of theGreater Toronto Area (GTA) from 1985 to 2005 using MAS. After analyzing the driving force in thisarea, three different types of agents are defined: residents, developers and government, in terms oftheir diverse characteristics in real society. Considering different even opposite demands of residentsin residential development, we divide residents into two parts: new residents and existing residents. Inthe beginning of running this expansion model, we allocate the agents with a spatio-temporal criterionto obtain a better simulation. The preliminary result shows that multi-agent model has someadvantages in simulating urban sprawl phenomenon.

Keyword
MAS; Simulation; Urban Sprawl; Land use; GTA
National Category
Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-89375 (URN)
Conference
13th AGILE International Conference on Geographic Information Science 2010, Guimarães, Portugal, 10-14 May 2010
Note
QC 20120420Available from: 2012-02-14 Created: 2012-02-14 Last updated: 2013-05-14Bibliographically approved
2. Urban Growth modeling with road network expansion and land use development
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Urban Growth modeling with road network expansion and land use development
2011 (English)In: Advances in Cartography and GIScience: Selection from ICC 2011, Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2011, 2, 399-412 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Land use and transportation systems are considered as two most important subsystems determining urban form and structure, and are assumed to mutually influence each other overtime. To better understand the relationship between them, we build a simple dynamic model to simulate longterm urban growth instead of a static one. Our urban simulation combines vector road network growth with grid land use dynamics. Vector model has advantages in topological analysis and we use space syntax metrics to control road network growth by estimating road traffic flow, which is also adopted to calculated accessibility for land use simulation. The land use model includes five land use categories and two behavior sub-models: mobility model and location choice model. Our preliminary simulation results show similar land use patterns of how real cities grow.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Berlin/Heidelberg, 2011 Edition: 2
Series
Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, 6(7)
National Category
Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-87767 (URN)10.1007/978-3-642-19214-2_27 (DOI)
Note
QC 20120411Available from: 2012-02-14 Created: 2012-02-14 Last updated: 2013-05-14Bibliographically approved
3. Nonlinear growth in weighted networks with neighborhood preferential attachment
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Nonlinear growth in weighted networks with neighborhood preferential attachment
2012 (English)In: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, ISSN 0378-4371, E-ISSN 1873-2119, Vol. 391, no 20, 4790-4797 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We propose a nonlinear growing model for weighted networks with two significant characteristics: (i) the new weights triggered by new edges at each time step grow nonlinearly with time; and (ii) a neighborhood local-world exists for local preferential attachment, which is defined as one selected node and its neighbors. Global strength-driven and local weight-driven preferential attachment mechanisms are involved in our model. We study the evolution process through both mathematical analysis and numerical simulation, and find that the model exhibits a wide-range power-law distribution for node degree, strength, and weight. In particular, a nonlinear degree-strength relationship is obtained. This nonlinearity implies that accelerating growth of new weights plays a nontrivial role compared with accelerating growth of edges. Because of the specific local-world model, a small-world property emerges, and a significant hierarchical organization, independent of the parameters, is observed.

Keyword
Hierarchy, Local world, Nonlinear growth, Weighted evolving networks
National Category
Other Computer and Information Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-95064 (URN)10.1016/j.physa.2012.05.055 (DOI)000306825300026 ()2-s2.0-84863476750 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20120807

Available from: 2012-05-12 Created: 2012-05-12 Last updated: 2017-12-07Bibliographically approved
4. The effects of neighboring connections on weighted network evolution.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The effects of neighboring connections on weighted network evolution.
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-122192 (URN)
Note

QS 2013

Available from: 2013-05-14 Created: 2013-05-14 Last updated: 2013-05-14Bibliographically approved
5. Exploring the patterns and evolution of self-organized urban street networks through modeling
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploring the patterns and evolution of self-organized urban street networks through modeling
2013 (English)In: European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter Physics, ISSN 1434-6028, E-ISSN 1434-6036, Vol. 86, no 3, 74- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

As one of the most important subsystems in cities, urban street networks have recently been well studied by using the approach of complex networks. This paper proposes a growing model for self-organized urban street networks. The model involves a competition among new centers with different values of attraction radius and a local optimal principle of both geometrical and topological factors. We find that with the model growth, the local optimization in the connection process and appropriate probability for the loop construction well reflect the evolution strategy in real-world cities. Moreover, different values of attraction radius in centers competition process lead to morphological change in patterns including urban network, polycentric and monocentric structures. The model succeeds in reproducing a large diversity of road network patterns by varying parameters. The similarity between the properties of our model and empirical results implies that a simple universal growth mechanism exists in self-organized cities.

Keyword
Spatial Structure, Road Networks, Centrality, Optimality
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-109751 (URN)10.1140/epjb/e2012-30235-7 (DOI)000317012300002 ()2-s2.0-84876171091 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20130506

Available from: 2013-01-08 Created: 2013-01-08 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
6. The influence of street centrality on urban structure in Stockholm
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The influence of street centrality on urban structure in Stockholm
(English)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-122193 (URN)
Note

QS 2013

Available from: 2013-05-14 Created: 2013-05-14 Last updated: 2013-05-14Bibliographically approved

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