Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
Freight demand models have not been developed that much as passenger demand models. The
reason is existence of too many complexities in this area. To estimate a disaggregate freight
transport models large input data is required. The Swedish Flow Commodity survey 2004/2005
(CFS) which is a unique data source at the level of individual firms made it possible to estimate a
disaggregate model to analyze the choice of transport chains and shipment size for the domestic
metal products. The output of logistics module of the Swedish national freight transport
(SAMGODS) is used as an auxiliary database to incorporate logistics decisions which CFS lacks
in the model.
The model comprises logistics perspective by considering both shipment size and transport
chains as endogenous choices. Characteristics of shippers, shipments and transport chains are
included in the model to analyze the choice of transport chain and shipment size. It has been
tried to include as many transport chains as possible in the choice sets to consider their effects on
decision making. Transport costs have been included in the model as shipment size specific to
incorporate the concept of logistics more precisely in the model.
From the results it can be seen that the freight transport demand is almost inelastic to the cost.
The model gives a positive sign for the coefficient of the transport time which can be explained
as the storage cost is so high that shippers prefer to use transport modes as the moving
Finally, it is suggested to estimate panel discrete choice models on this dataset.
2010. , 017 p.