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Markov-chain modeling of energy users and electric vehicles: Applications to distributed photovoltaics
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Engineering Sciences. (BEESG)
2012 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Technological improvements and falling prices on photovoltaic panels andelectric vehicles suggest that they might become more common in future households.The introduction of a photovoltaic system and an electric vehiclehas considerable impact on the energy balance of a household. This licentiate thesis investigates the power consumption- and productionpatterns associated with the photovoltaic (PV) electricity production,household electricity consumption and home charged plug-in electric vehicle(PEV) electricity consumption. This investigation is carried out on both an individual and aggregate household level. The methodology used in this thesis is interdisciplinary but the maincontributions are mathematical modeling and simulations of the three main components. Theoretical estimates of electricityconsumption were constructed from extensions to the Wid\'{e}n Markov-chain model for generating synthetichousehold electricity use patterns. The main research contribution in thisthesis is the development and analysis of two extensions of this Markov-chain model: (I) Electricity use from a home charged PEV,(II) Flexibility of end-user power use. These two extensions were used in studiesregarding the coincidence - in particular the level of self-consumption - between PV electricityproduction and household electricity use. PV electricity production was modeledfrom high resolution solar irradiance data from the Ångström laboratory.\\Results show that the home charged PEV load would increase the household loadconsiderably. It was also shown that the level of correlation between PEV load and PVelectricity production was low, but that to some extent the PEV load could help increasethe self-consumption of PV power, both on individual and aggregate household level.\\The modeling and simulations of end-user flexibility showed that the householdload profile could be altered to a certain degree. It was also shown thatcertain flexibility setup could improve the self-consumption of PV power production, more so than theintroduction of a PEV.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Uppsala universitet, 2012. , 50 p.
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-195824OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-195824DiVA: diva2:608393
Presentation
2012-12-10, Häggsalen, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Uppsala, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2013-02-27 Created: 2013-02-27 Last updated: 2013-02-27Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. PHEV Home-Charging Model Based on Residential Activity Patterns
Open this publication in new window or tab >>PHEV Home-Charging Model Based on Residential Activity Patterns
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2013 (English)In: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, ISSN 0885-8950, E-ISSN 1558-0679, Vol. 28, no 3, 2507-2515 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have received an increased interest lately since they provide an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the PHEV introduction level in the car park, the charging behaviors in an area will induce changes in the load profiles of the power system. Hence, it becomes important to investigate what impact a given PHEV introduction level has on load profiles due to expected charging behavior of residents. This paper proposes a new model for generating PHEV home-charging patterns by combining PHEV usage with synthetic activity generation of residents' electricity-dependent activities. The synthetic activity data are simulated based on time-use data collected in time diaries, and define the basis for calculations of the PHEV home-charging behavior as well as the resident's electricity consumption. The proposed model is generic and can be used where similar residential time-use data are available. Based on the underlying activities, the model estimates the total load profile due to residential load as well as the variation in the load profile. The resulting load profiles can be used in load shaving studies in order to investigate what type of activities, PHEV usage or other, may be moved to hours with lower demand.

National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-195823 (URN)10.1109/TPWRS.2012.2230193 (DOI)000322989900046 ()
Available from: 2013-02-27 Created: 2013-02-27 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
2. Quantifying self-consumption of on-site photovoltaic power generation in households with electric vehicle home charging
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Quantifying self-consumption of on-site photovoltaic power generation in households with electric vehicle home charging
2013 (English)In: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 97, 208-216 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Photovoltaic (PV) power production and residential power demand are negativelycorrelated at high latitudes on both annual and diurnal basis. If PVpenetration levels increase, methods to deal with power overproduction in the localdistribution grids are needed to avoid costly grid reinforcements. Increased local consumption isone such option. The introduction of a home-chargedplug-in electric vehicle (PEV) has a significant impact on the household load and potentiallychanges the coincidence between household load and photovoltaic power production.This paper uses a stochastic model to investigate the effect on the coincidence between householdload and photovoltaic power production when including a PEV load. The investigationis based on two system levels: (I) individual householdlevel and (II) aggregate household level. The stochastic model produces theoretical high-resolutionload profiles for household load and home charged PEV load over time.The photovoltaic power production model is based on high-resolution irradiance data for Uppsala, Sweden.It is shown that the introduction of a PEV improves the self-consumption of the photovoltaicpower both on an individual and an aggregate level, but the increase is limited due to thelow coincidence between the photovoltaic power production pattern and the charging patterns of the PEV.

National Category
Engineering and Technology
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-195831 (URN)10.1016/j.solener.2013.08.015 (DOI)000326851400023 ()
Available from: 2013-02-27 Created: 2013-02-27 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
3. A flexible Markov-chain model for simulating demand side management strategies with applications to distributed photovoltaics
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A flexible Markov-chain model for simulating demand side management strategies with applications to distributed photovoltaics
2012 (English)In: Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Forum 2012, Denver, Colorado, USA, May 13-17, 2012, 2012, 1858-1865 p.Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In this paper a stochastic model for load shifting was utilized for the purpose of investigating the potential for increased self-consumption of photovoltaic (PV) generation in households. We show the results in terms of power consumption, PV power production and solar fraction from a number of scenarios involving end-user flexibility on the order of a few percent. Simulations are performed on both an individual and an aggregate level. Results indicate that the solar fraction is only improved by a few percent both on an aggregate and individual level even for the most extreme scenarios of load shifting. The lack of substantial increase in solar fraction from imposed flexibility can partly be attributed to complementary energy use; when certain energy-demanding activities are downshifted in probability other activities are up-shifted. Another explanation for the lack of increased solar fraction is the total available fraction of flexible activities at a certain time.

National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science with specialization in Solid State Physics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-174619 (URN)978-162276092-3 (ISBN)
Conference
World Renewable Energy Forum, WREF 2012, Including World Renewable Energy Congress XII and Colorado Renewable Energy Society (CRES) Annual Conference, May 13-17, 2012, Denver, Colorado, USA
Available from: 2012-05-22 Created: 2012-05-22 Last updated: 2016-05-27Bibliographically approved
4. Widespread integration of distributed photovoltaics at high latitudes: Opportunities and challenges
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Widespread integration of distributed photovoltaics at high latitudes: Opportunities and challenges
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the 26th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU-PVSEC), Hamburg, Germany, September 5-9, 2011, 2011Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Engineering Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-171804 (URN)
Conference
26th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference (EU-PVSEC), Hamburg, Germany, September 5-9, 2011
Available from: 2012-03-27 Created: 2012-03-27 Last updated: 2015-01-07Bibliographically approved

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