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Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8745-7510
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
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2012 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 40, no 11-12Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Arctic climate change is analyzed in anensemble of future projection simulations performed withthe global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earthsimulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relativelywell but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea icethickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-firstcentury, the results show a continuation and strengtheningof the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades,which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate,especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Theannually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperatureincreases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in theBarents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced inwinter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arcticwinter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios anddisappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free inSeptember in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reductionevent without recovery around year 2060. Taking intoaccount the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century,our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic inSeptember around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronouncedin the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to themost dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heatfluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantiallydecreased. The meridional heat flux into theArctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in theocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhancedheat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes tothe large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in thisregion. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to morefreshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most ofthe additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean whilethe total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer-Verlag New York, 2012. Vol. 40, no 11-12
Keyword [en]
Arctic climate, Future scenarios, CMIP5, Global coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling, Coupled Arctic climate processes
National Category
Climate Research Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-83576DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1505-yISI: 000319360800010OAI: diva2:576336
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2012-12-12 Created: 2012-12-12 Last updated: 2018-01-12Bibliographically approved

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