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Risk-based ship security analysis – an approach based on civilian and military methods
Swedish National Defence College, Department of Military Studies, Military-Technology Division.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-8968-9793
2012 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The demands on maritime operations today are increasingly higher in terms of control, efficiency and cost. The margins for accidents and security incidents are therefore decreasing. In the area of ship safety the regulations, guidelines and methods have a history and culture of systematic research, development and implementation. In contrast, international security is highly politicized and therefore not as transparent. The result is that a tradition of ship security is not as well established.

The overall aim of this thesis is to propose a method for ship security analysis that increases the overall safety of the crew and the ship. The objective is to develop a method that is systematic in order to ensure that assessment and response are complete and effective, and that the process is documented to provide evidence of decision-making.

The method used is probabilistic risk assessment where quantitative analysis is central. The proposed approach is consistent with the requirements of maritime safety work. However, in the work here, the proposed methods are specifically tested for security cases. This is because hazards (without intent) and threats (with intent) evolve in different ways into risk. Therefore, they must be analysed differently in order to capture the causal relationship.

The proposed approach consists of three steps: the first step consists of a threat description that documents qualitative and quantitative aspects that together describe how the threat most likely will act in relation to the ship’s vulnerability; the second step uses the threat description to define the system studied as well as the scenarios that collectively describe the harmful consequences; the third step evaluates the risk with tools from probabilistic risk assessment.

The overall conclusion is that the proposed method brings the procedure and results of ship security analysis into the open and therefore allows for criticism, improvements and shared risk knowledge, not possible with less structured methods. The results also show that the calculated probabilities agree with available statistics, which indicates that the analysis succeeds in describing the central causal relationships of the scenarios modelled.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Göteborg: Chalmers University of Technology , 2012. , 96 p.
Series
Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, ISSN 1652-9189 ; 12:141
Keyword [en]
naval ship, piracy, risk-based, risk control options, ship security analysis
National Category
Vehicle Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2835OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-2835DiVA: diva2:561719
Presentation
2012-11-15, Gamma, Forskningsgången 4, Chalmers Campus Lindholmen, Göteborg, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2012-10-25 Created: 2012-10-21 Last updated: 2017-01-04Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
2012 (English)In: International Journal of Maritime Engineering, ISSN 1479-8751, E-ISSN 1740-0716, no 154, A21-A30 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: , 2012
Keyword
risk analysis, military-technology, naval ships, safety, security, scenario
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2609 (URN)
Available from: 2012-05-25 Created: 2012-05-25 Last updated: 2017-08-31Bibliographically approved
2. Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks: The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code
2011 (English)In: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010 / [ed] Åke Sivertun, Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan , 2011, 1, 65-81 p.Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The NATO Standardization Agency (NSA) is proposing a Naval Ship Code (NSC) that can be applied to surface naval vessels and other vessels operated by the armed forces or agencies of a state. The NSC is optional and based on, and benchmarked against, conventions and resolutions of the International Maritime Organisation.

The NSC cover areas such as ship controllability, engineering systems, fire safety, evacuation, communications and navigation. The code does not include measures specifically designed to address the effects of armed attack.

The covered areas in NSC are however also very important when the effects from armed attack is to be minimised. This work investigates how the NSC will effect, and interact with, measures to ensure survivability under attack. Survivability is here seen as a function of the ships susceptibility, vulnerabilityand recoverability. Based on two case studies this paper exemplifies the effect of the NSC on the vessels total safety. The case studies presented are ballistic protection on smaller naval vessels and bridge configuration to minimize effects of attacks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Försvarshögskolan, 2011 Edition: 1
Series
Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology, ISSN 1654-9775 ; 2
Keyword
Military-technology, International Society of Military Sciences Conference, Nato, Naval Ship Code, Militärteknik, International Society of Military Sciences Conference, Nato, sjörätt
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2105 (URN)978-91-86137-07-6 (ISBN)
Available from: 2011-10-31 Created: 2011-10-31 Last updated: 2015-02-11Bibliographically approved

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