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The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, Analysis and Applied Mathematics.
2012 (English)In: PLoS ONE, ISSN 1932-6203, Vol. 7, no 7, e41135- p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R-0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 7, no 7, e41135- p.
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URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-181133DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041135ISI: 000306751300025OAI: diva2:553271
Available from: 2012-09-18 Created: 2012-09-17 Last updated: 2012-09-18Bibliographically approved

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Sumpter, David J. T.
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