Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Risk and Profitability of Photovoltaic Technology in Thailand
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
2012 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Thailand possesses high potential for solar energy, which has been given more attention from both government and the private sector lately. While the major investment in solar energy has gradually shifted from governments to private sectors, this paper aims to compare private investment's net present value (NPV) and production risks of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) projects. The scope of this paper includes PV projects on three different scales: 3 kW, 5 MW and 73 MW installed capacity in 74 locations across Thailand. The study utilizes RETscreen software to estimate means and variability in electricity productions in Thailand. Cost-benefit analysis is the method used to measure projects’ NPV and profitability, while portfolio theory is applied to capture the profit variability or production risk. The analysis also includes 3 feed-in-tariff (FIT or adder) scenarios that are likely to happen in the solar energy policy in Thailand; which are 8 baht/kWh, 6.5 baht/kWh and the case where there is no support at all. The study finds that 3 kW PV projects yield negative NPV, which means investment losses, in all scenarios and locations in the country. On the other hand, 5 MW PV projects result in positive NPV in all scenarios and locations and it is concluded to be the most profitable scale among three. 73 MW PV projects are considered as policy dependenceas the projectsyield negative NPV without the supports. Sensitivity analysis shows that the costs of 3 kW projects have to reduce at least by 60% in order to turn the projects to profits. With respect to allocation of risk, the production risks of 73 MW projects are slightly higher compared to the other two scales. Also, it is shown that the technologies located in north of Thailand have higher production risks, but yield approximately the same expected net benefits as technologies located in the rest of the country. As for conclusions, the future of PV technology in Thailand is still bright, but the investors should intensely consider about scale and location of the implementation. Further researches can examine other scales of PV technology and the drives behind the risk characteristics in Thailand. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. , 66 p.
Examensarbete vid Institutionen för geovetenskaper, ISSN 1650-6553 ; 78
Keyword [en]
Sustainable Development, Photovoltaic, Investment Choices, Cost Benefit Analysis, Risk Analysis, Risk-Profitability approach
National Category
Natural Sciences
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-181032OAI: diva2:552729
Subject / course
Sustainable development
Educational program
Master Programme in Sustainable Development
2012-05-29, Norland ii, department of earth science, Villav. 16, 752 36 UPPSALA, Uppsala, 10:00 (English)
Available from: 2012-10-01 Created: 2012-09-15 Last updated: 2012-10-01Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

Pan Piyasil(2921 kB)2061 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT02.pdfFile size 2921 kBChecksum SHA-512
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Earth Sciences
Natural Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 2061 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 342 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link