An Introduction to Application of Statistical Methods in Modeling the Climate Change
Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
There are many unsolved questions about the future of climate, and most of them are due to lack of knowledgeabout the complex system of atmosphere, but still there are models that produce relatively realistic projectionsof the future although there are uncertainties in the presentation of them, and that's where statistical methodscould be of help. Here a short introduction is given to the projection of future climate with GCM ensembles andthe uncertainties about them, the emerging probabilistic approach, as well as the REA (Reliability EnsembleAverage) method for measuring the reliability of the model projections. In order to have an impression of theresults of the GCM ensemble results and their uncertainties the results of the weather forecast over a time periodof one year in three dierent cities of Sweden is studied as well.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. , 25 p.
climate change, GCM, model ensembles, prediction, REA method, weather forecast in Sweden
Probability Theory and Statistics
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-175770OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-175770DiVA: diva2:533312
Subject / course
Master Programme in Statistics
UppsokLife Earth Science
Larsson, Rolf, Professor