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Alpin permafrost i Kebnekaisefjällen: Modellering med logistisk regression och BTS-data
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.
2011 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Mountain permafrost in Kebnekaise : Modelling with logistic regression and BTS proxy data (English)
Abstract [sv]

Denna studie är ett försök att modellera den alpina permafrostens utbredning inom Kebnekaisemassivet i norra Lappland. En karta som visar sannolikheten för permafrostens utbredning har skapats med hjälp av data från Bottom Temperature of Snow cover (BTS) - mätningar samt statistisk modellering genom logistisk regression.

Fältstudien genomfördes under mars till april 2011 med totalt 56 BTS-punkter från 1073 till 1805 m.ö.h. Permafrostförekomsten bestämdes vara en funktion av höjden. För att utreda detta användes stepwise selection som är en metod för att identifiera statistiskt signifikanta variabler gentemot en beroende variabel. De andra parametrarna som testades var topografins sluttningsgradient, riktningen av den maximala lutningen och den potentiella solinstrålningen. Dessa parametrars inverkan på permafrostförekomsten ansågs vara försumbara, och de bortsågs därför från i modelleringen.

Modelleringen indikerar att permafrost med sannolikhet större än 0,8 existerar över 1190 m.ö.h, och med sannolikhet mellan 0,8 till 0,5 finns mellan 1190 till 1144 m.ö.h. Eftersom fältstudien är begränsad till Tarfaladalen så är modelleringens förutsägelse för förekomsten av permafrost i andra delar av fjällmassivet mera osäkert.

Abstract [en]

This study presents an attempt to model the limits of mountain permafrost distribution within the Kebnekaise massif in northern Sweden. A map showing the probabilities for the mountain permafrost distribution has been created using statistical modelling through logistic regression of Bottom Temperature of Snow cover (BTS) measurements.

The survey was conducted in March to April 2011 with a total of 56 BTS-point measurements stretching from 1073 to 1805 m.a.s.l. Permafrost occurrence was determined to be a function of altitude. This was determined by a stepwise selection analysis, a method used for identifying parameters with a statistical significance against a dependent variable. The other parameters that were tested for significance were the slope and aspect of the topography, and the potential incoming solar radiation. Although these might have an influence on the permafrost occurrence, they were considered to be of less importance and were thus neglected in the modelling.

The model indicates permafrost with greater than 0,8 probability at and above 1190 m.a.s.l, and with probability from 0,8 to 0,5 between 1190 to 1144 m.a.s.l. Since the survey was carried in the Tarfala valley, the result of the modelling is more uncertain in the parts of the area which lie outside of this valley.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011.
Series
Självständigt arbete i geovetenskap, 22
Keyword [sv]
permafrost, bts, sverige, kebnekaise, tarfala
National Category
Physical Geography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-174485OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-174485DiVA: diva2:527215
Educational program
Bachelor Programme in Earth Science
Presentation
2011-05-31, Hörsalen, Sveriges Geologiska Undersökning, Villavägen 18, Uppsala, 13:00 (Swedish)
Uppsok
Life Earth Science
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2012-06-13 Created: 2012-05-18 Last updated: 2012-06-13Bibliographically approved

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