Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer
2011 (English)In: British Journal of Cancer, ISSN 0007-0920, E-ISSN 1532-1827, Vol. 105, no 8, 1144-1150 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
BACKGROUND: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. METHODS: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n = 955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n = 340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics. RESULTS: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities. CONCLUSION: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cancer Research UK , 2011. Vol. 105, no 8, 1144-1150 p.
nomogram; recurrent ovarian cancer; prognosis; platinum sensitivity; progression-free survival
Medical and Health Sciences
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-73593DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2011.364ISI: 000296144900007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:liu-73593DiVA: diva2:474768