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Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
2011 (English)In: Energy and Environment, ISSN 0958-305X, Vol. 22, no 7, 837-858 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamental assumptions regarding coal availability and production in SRES was also compared with recent studies on reasonable future production outlooks. It was found that SRES puts unreasonable expectation on just a few countries. Is it reasonable to expect that China, already accounting for 46% of the global output, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain SRES scenarios? It is concluded that SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated resource estimates. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 22, no 7, 837-858 p.
Keyword [en]
Emission scenarios, CO2 emissions, future coal production, peak coal
National Category
Energy Systems Environmental Management Other Physics Topics Other Natural Sciences Climate Research Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-160830DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.22.7.837ISI: 000296390500002OAI: diva2:453203
Available from: 2011-11-01 Created: 2011-11-01 Last updated: 2015-01-08Bibliographically approved

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Höök, Mikael
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