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Global oil risks in the early 21st Century
Moscow School of Economics.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
Post Peak Living.
2011 (English)In: Energy Policy, ISSN 0301-4215, Vol. 39, no 12, 7865-7873 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 39, no 12, 7865-7873 p.
Keyword [en]
peak oil, economic risks, energy transition risks
National Category
Economics Other Physics Topics Energy Systems
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-160232DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.035ISI: 000298363400038OAI: diva2:448789
Available from: 2011-10-18 Created: 2011-10-18 Last updated: 2015-08-13Bibliographically approved

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