Union stability as an engine of fertility? A micro-simulation model for France
2012 (English)In: Demography, ISSN 0070-3370, E-ISSN 1533-7790, Vol. 49, no 1, 175-195 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Opportunities for conceiving and bearing children are fewer when unionsare not formed or are dissolved during the childbearing years. At the same time, unioninstability produces a pool of persons who may enter new partnerships and haveadditional children in stepfamilies. The balance between these two opposing forcesand their implications for fertility may depend on the timing of union formation andparenthood. In this article, we estimate models of childbearing, union formation, andunion dissolution for female respondents to the 1999 French Etude de l’HistoireFamiliale. Model parameters are applied in microsimulations of completed familysize. We find that a population of women whose first unions dissolve during thechildbearing years will end up with smaller families, on average, than a population inwhich all unions remain intact. Because new partnerships encourage higher parityprogressions, repartnering minimizes the fertility gap between populations with andthose without union dissolution. Differences between the two populations are muchsmaller when family formation is postponed—that is, when union formation anddissolution or first birth occurs after age 30, or when couples delay childbearingafter union formation.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2012. Vol. 49, no 1, 175-195 p.
fertility, divorce, union stability, micro-simulation
Research subject Demography
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-63292DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0085-5ISI: 000300065100008OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-63292DiVA: diva2:448266