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Projection of Australian coal production: Comparisons of four models
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
2011 (English)In: Proceedings of the International Pittsburgh Coal Conference 2011, 2011Conference paper (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail. Two recoverable resource estimates, a Standard case and a High case, were determined. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. The study performed forecasting by use of curve-fitting with Logistic and Gompertz curves as well as Static and Dynamic versions of a supply and demand model based on real world mineral exploitation.

The different modelling approaches were used to project fossil fuel production and the outlooks were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119±6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084±5 at 1–1.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Keyword [en]
Australia, coal reserves, coal production, peak coal, modelling
National Category
Production Engineering, Human Work Science and Ergonomics Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-158541OAI: diva2:439982
Twenty Eighth Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, September 12-15, 2011, Pittsburgh, USA
Proceeding avaliable on CD-ROM only.Available from: 2011-09-09 Created: 2011-09-09 Last updated: 2015-01-08Bibliographically approved

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Höök, Mikael
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