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Forecasting the House Price Index in Stockholm County 2011-2014: A multiple regression analysis of four influential macroeconomic variables
Mälardalen University, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology.
2011 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Purpose of the research: The purpose is to forecast the future trend of housing prices in Stockholm County 2011-2014 based on estimated slope coefficients of selected explanatory variables 1993-2010. Thereafter, the obtained forecast will be discussed with respect to other non-quantifiable concepts within behavioral economics. Method: Multiple regression technique with a deductive and explorative approach. Empirical data: Quantitative. Conclusion: The future trend of housing prices in Stockholm County has been forecasted to be positively sloped throughout all the years 2011-2014, but in 2011, the forecast reveals that the increase of house prices will taper off. Nevertheless, behavioral economics reveals some insights about the trend on the housing market and that the house prices might include a portion of abnormal returns.

Abstract [sv]

Syfte: Syftet är att förutse den framtida utvecklingen av bostadspriserna i Stockholms län 2011-2014 baserade på beräknade lutningskoefficienter av valda förklaringsvariabler 1993-2010. Därefter kommer den erhållna prognosen att diskuteras i förhållande till andra icke-kvantifierbara begrepp inom beteendeekonomi. Metod: Multipel regressionsteknik med en deduktiv och explorativ strategi. Empirisk data: Kvantitativ. Slutsats: Den framtida utvecklingen av bostadspriserna i Stockholms län har beräknats ha en positiv lutning inom samtliga år 2011-2014, men under 2011 visar också prognosen att ökningen av huspriserna kommer att avta successivt. Icke desto mindre avslöjar beteendeekonomi vissa insikter om utvecklingen på bostadsmarknaden och att huspriserna kan innehålla en andel abnorm avkastning. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. , 28 p.
Keyword [en]
forecast, house prices, real estate prices, stockholm, behavioral economics, behavioral finance, price bubble
Keyword [sv]
prognos, huspriser, bostadspriser, stockholm, beteendeekonomi, prisbubbla
National Category
Economics Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-12600OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-12600DiVA: diva2:425714
Subject / course
Economics
Presentation
2011-06-08, S1-172, Mälardalens högskola, 721 23, Västerås, 20:02 (English)
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2011-08-18 Created: 2011-06-21 Last updated: 2011-08-18Bibliographically approved

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Strömberg, PeterHedman, MattiasBroberg, Madeleine
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CiteExportLink to record
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