Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Modelling cross-border transport in Öresund: Scenario assumptions, model results and a before-and-after database
KTH, Superseded Departments, Infrastructure and Planning.
2004 (English)In: Review of Regional Research (Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Transport models, and transport/land-use interaction models, are important decision support tools for large-scale infrastructure investments, for example in the road network. A bothersome feature of these tools are their distant forecasting horizon of 10—30 years ahead, and the uncertainty following from this. Although widely used, these models have rarely been put to test after this period have passed. The predictive power of a transport model is dependent on its ability to reproduce reality, which is assessed by validation. Apart from modelling the specific transport demand, which is based partly on socio-economic (demand) factors and partly on the supply of transport facilities (infrastructure), a number of scenarios of the future socioeconomic development must be set up, called the scenario assumptions. In this paper we will present three different transport models: FREDRIK/SSV,COMVIN and SAMPERS/Skåne, out of which the first two have been used to model the transport across the Öresund Strait. The model structure, forecast results and scenario assumptions are considered in order to identify the key sources of uncertainties, and to prepare for the estimation of the true model error versus the error caused by incorrect scenario assumptions. Furthermore, we outline the contents of a before-and-after database for external validation of models of the interaction of transport, land-use and the environment in Öresund.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2004.
Keyword [en]
infrastructure planning, transport models, validation, Öresund, before-and-after data
Keyword [sv]
infrastrukturplanering, transportmodeller, validering, Öresund, före-och-efter-data
National Category
Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33452OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-33452DiVA: diva2:415547
Projects
Regional development consequences of the Öresund bridge
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QS 20120316. Updated from manuscript to submitted.Available from: 2011-05-12 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2012-03-16Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Production econometrics and transport demand modelling in Southern and Northern Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Production econometrics and transport demand modelling in Southern and Northern Sweden
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of three main parts. The first and most important part, in terms of effort and time spent, is devoted to the estimation of the importance of accessibility for production at the firm or plant level using three different econometric estimation approaches. The results could have implications for the calculation of "wider" economic benefits of transport infrastructure, stemming from agglomeration externalities (e.g., scale economies). There are both methodological and result-wise conclusions that can be drawn from this research: methodologically, first, using unbalanced firm-level data requires the use of proxy variables to account for (initial) firm-specific unobserved productivity effects, and non-random exit from the dataset. Second, there are unsolved theoretical problems when applying an essentially aggregate approach to productivity analysis on disaggregate data, viz., relating to the existence of aggregate production functions, and to the aggregation of productivity from a disaggregate level to a more aggregate level in a spatial framework.

Result-wise, clear productivity differences are presented, when comparing firms in the same time period but in different locations with different accessibility. However, it is not possible in this dataset to detect increased productivity for representative firms stemming from the opening of the Öresund link. It is therefore discussed whether the reason for this result could be the inappropriateness of output measures in a competitive business environment, where a large portion of the benefits are gradually transferred to consumers and thus remain unmeasured. Other, more comprehensive structural approaches to econometrics, including the demand side of the economy, are also recommended.

The second part of the thesis treats an unjustly neglected area of transport research: the validation of transport demand models. These transport models are for example used to calculate the new traffic patterns and changes in accessibility from a transport infrastructure investment like the Öresund fixed link, around which most of this thesis orbits. The third and last part, written with two co-authors, deals with the "vulnerability" of the road network, in terms of effects on the travel time delays of the users when a link is disrupted. The calculated indices of importance and exposure could also be seen as extreme forms of accessibility, especially when there is no alternative route besides the one that is cut-off.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2011. 238 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 11-001
Keyword
Öresund link, productivity, accessibility, micro data, validation, exposure
National Category
Economic Geography
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33451 (URN)978-91-85539-74-1 (ISBN)
Public defence
2011-05-27, D3, Lindstedtsvägen 5, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20110513Available from: 2011-05-13 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2012-06-12Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

Paper_IV(389 kB)287 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 389 kBChecksum SHA-512
4c818523c73ee4631a462ffec82928f95a5b29c49a29ad456ddbc08d016acaf5858b060748a45901445084d47231a406c0201eb9c1b4a339be5a30b6925b6a20
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Validation

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Petersen, Tom
By organisation
Infrastructure and Planning
Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 287 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 118 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link