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Production econometrics and transport demand modelling in Southern and Northern Sweden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport and Location Analysis.
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis consists of three main parts. The first and most important part, in terms of effort and time spent, is devoted to the estimation of the importance of accessibility for production at the firm or plant level using three different econometric estimation approaches. The results could have implications for the calculation of "wider" economic benefits of transport infrastructure, stemming from agglomeration externalities (e.g., scale economies). There are both methodological and result-wise conclusions that can be drawn from this research: methodologically, first, using unbalanced firm-level data requires the use of proxy variables to account for (initial) firm-specific unobserved productivity effects, and non-random exit from the dataset. Second, there are unsolved theoretical problems when applying an essentially aggregate approach to productivity analysis on disaggregate data, viz., relating to the existence of aggregate production functions, and to the aggregation of productivity from a disaggregate level to a more aggregate level in a spatial framework.

Result-wise, clear productivity differences are presented, when comparing firms in the same time period but in different locations with different accessibility. However, it is not possible in this dataset to detect increased productivity for representative firms stemming from the opening of the Öresund link. It is therefore discussed whether the reason for this result could be the inappropriateness of output measures in a competitive business environment, where a large portion of the benefits are gradually transferred to consumers and thus remain unmeasured. Other, more comprehensive structural approaches to econometrics, including the demand side of the economy, are also recommended.

The second part of the thesis treats an unjustly neglected area of transport research: the validation of transport demand models. These transport models are for example used to calculate the new traffic patterns and changes in accessibility from a transport infrastructure investment like the Öresund fixed link, around which most of this thesis orbits. The third and last part, written with two co-authors, deals with the "vulnerability" of the road network, in terms of effects on the travel time delays of the users when a link is disrupted. The calculated indices of importance and exposure could also be seen as extreme forms of accessibility, especially when there is no alternative route besides the one that is cut-off.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology , 2011. , 238 p.
Series
Trita-TEC-PHD, ISSN 1653-4468 ; 11-001
Keyword [en]
Öresund link, productivity, accessibility, micro data, validation, exposure
National Category
Economic Geography
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33451ISBN: 978-91-85539-74-1OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-33451DiVA: diva2:415546
Public defence
2011-05-27, D3, Lindstedtsvägen 5, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20110513Available from: 2011-05-13 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2012-06-12Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Accessibility and productivity: A cost function microdata panel approach
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Accessibility and productivity: A cost function microdata panel approach
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A microlevel panel dataset is used to investigate the "public capital hypothesis" for the Swedish part of the Öresund region, the county of Scania. Microlevel data could reduce problems with endogeneity of infrastructure provision and the direction of causation, provide more exact prices on labour and private capital, and introduce the possibility to analyse the sources of macro productivity. In earlier studies, it has been found that the elasticity ofpublic capital on output has decreased with the level of disaggregation, and the question is what happens at the most disaggregate level of the economy. As a proxy for infrastructure services we use an accessibility measure, whichbetter describes the service derived from the transport system than the traditional measures of public capital stock or highway density. A translog cost function, augmented with accessibility, is estimated for 24 industry aggregates. Tests for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity reject the nullhypotheses of no such effects. Using a Within variation (fi…xed effects) approach, we …nd some indications of cost reductions in the Construction and Transportation sectors, and for the aggregated Manufacturing or Service sectors in areas with low accessibility; but not on the pooled dataset. The results are very sensitive to specifi…cation. The microlevel approach provides an interesting alternative to the aggregate production function, and many new models emerging from research could be adapted for infrastructure analysis. However, it also introduces new problems, like selection bias of entry and exit, large dispersion, measurement errors, and the location of the activity.

Keyword
accessibility, infrastructure, micro level data, productivity, public capital hypothesis, unbalanced panel, Öresund region, tillgänglighet, infrastruktur, mikrodata, produktivitet, offentligt kapital-hypotesen, obalanserad panel, Öresundsregionen
National Category
Economic Geography
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33449 (URN)
Projects
Regional development consequences of the Öresund bridge
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20110512Available from: 2011-05-12 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2011-05-13Bibliographically approved
2. Estimating the link between accessibility and productivity with propensity score matching
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimating the link between accessibility and productivity with propensity score matching
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

A nonparametric approach to the link between accessibility and productivity is presented, using propensity score matching. The firms located in places with “high accessibility” are regarded as the “treatment group”, and the hypothesis tested is whether there is any significant treatment effect. The accessibility is a cross-section for the year 1997. We use a “short and wide” panel dataset, consisting of almost 25,000 individual firms/workplaces during 1990—98, subdivided into 24 industry aggregates. Each firm is geocoded with a 250 m resolution. The study region is the Swedish part of the Öresund region, the county of Scania (Skåne). The results present no effect of the high accessibility-treatment; neither on any branch level, nor on the pooled dataset. Alternative dependent variables are tested: individual efficiency based on the estimated “fixed effects”, and a Törnqvist index of productivity change, with the same result.

Keyword
propensity score matching, Öresund, productivity, efficiency, accessibility, infrastructure, matchning med deltagarsannolikhet, Öresund, produktivitet, effektivitet, tillgänglighet, infrastruktur
National Category
Economic Geography
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33450 (URN)
Projects
Regional development consequences of the Öresund bridge
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20110512Available from: 2011-05-12 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2011-05-13Bibliographically approved
3. Estimation of accessibility elasticities in connection with the Öresund fixed link using a panel of micro-data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Estimation of accessibility elasticities in connection with the Öresund fixed link using a panel of micro-data
(English)In: Regional Science and Urban Economics, ISSN 0166-0462Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

The productivity of public infrastructure has been the subject of numerous studies during the last two decades, often with vastly differing results. Matters of concern for these estimates have been the level of aggregation of the data, the measurement of the infrastructure stock, and endogeneitybias. In an attempt to estimate the wider economic impacts of the Öresund fi…xed link, these issues are addressed by estimating production functions from fi…rm data in Scania——the Swedish part of the Öresund region——using a novel method due to Olley and Pakes (1996), that takes endogenous inputchoices and self-selection into account. As a measure of the service provided by the infrastructure, accessibility to the workforce is used on a fi…ne-grained geographic level. The sign and signi…ficance of the two sources of bias are tested, as well as the robustness of the accessibility parameter with respect to the speci…cation of the barrier of trips across Öresund.

Keyword
Firm performance, agglomeration, market potential, accessibility, Öresund region, Olley and Pakes.
National Category
Economic Geography
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33645 (URN)
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QC 20110513. Updated from manuscript to submitted.Available from: 2011-05-13 Created: 2011-05-13 Last updated: 2012-01-31Bibliographically approved
4. Modelling cross-border transport in Öresund: Scenario assumptions, model results and a before-and-after database
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Modelling cross-border transport in Öresund: Scenario assumptions, model results and a before-and-after database
2004 (English)In: Review of Regional Research (Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft)Article in journal (Other academic) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Transport models, and transport/land-use interaction models, are important decision support tools for large-scale infrastructure investments, for example in the road network. A bothersome feature of these tools are their distant forecasting horizon of 10—30 years ahead, and the uncertainty following from this. Although widely used, these models have rarely been put to test after this period have passed. The predictive power of a transport model is dependent on its ability to reproduce reality, which is assessed by validation. Apart from modelling the specific transport demand, which is based partly on socio-economic (demand) factors and partly on the supply of transport facilities (infrastructure), a number of scenarios of the future socioeconomic development must be set up, called the scenario assumptions. In this paper we will present three different transport models: FREDRIK/SSV,COMVIN and SAMPERS/Skåne, out of which the first two have been used to model the transport across the Öresund Strait. The model structure, forecast results and scenario assumptions are considered in order to identify the key sources of uncertainties, and to prepare for the estimation of the true model error versus the error caused by incorrect scenario assumptions. Furthermore, we outline the contents of a before-and-after database for external validation of models of the interaction of transport, land-use and the environment in Öresund.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2004
Keyword
infrastructure planning, transport models, validation, Öresund, before-and-after data, infrastrukturplanering, transportmodeller, validering, Öresund, före-och-efter-data
National Category
Environmental Analysis and Construction Information Technology
Research subject
SRA - Transport
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-33452 (URN)
Projects
Regional development consequences of the Öresund bridge
Funder
TrenOp, Transport Research Environment with Novel Perspectives
Note
QS 20120316. Updated from manuscript to submitted.Available from: 2011-05-12 Created: 2011-05-07 Last updated: 2012-03-16Bibliographically approved
5. Importance and exposure in road network vulnerability analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Importance and exposure in road network vulnerability analysis
2006 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 40, no 7, 537-560 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The reliability and vulnerability of critical infrastructures have attracted a lot of attention recently. In order to assess these issues quantitatively, operational measures are needed. Such measures can also be used as guidance to road administrations in their prioritisation of maintenance and repair of roads, as well as for avoiding causing unnecessary disturbances in the planning of roadwork. The concepts of link importance and site exposure are introduced. In this paper, several link importance indices and site exposure indices are derived, based on the increase in generalised travel cost when links are closed. These measures are divided into two groups: one reflecting an "equal opportunities perspective", and the other a "social efficiency perspective". The measures are calculated for the road network of northern Sweden. Results are collected in a GIs for visualisation, and are presented per link and municipality. In view of the recent great interest in complex networks, some topological measures of the road network are also presented.

Keyword
Contingency planning, Road network topology, Travel reliability, Vulnerability index
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-7575 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2005.11.003 (DOI)000237913200001 ()2-s2.0-33645902544 (ScopusID)
Note

QC 20100917

Available from: 2007-11-06 Created: 2007-11-06 Last updated: 2016-05-30Bibliographically approved

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