Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE credits
The focus of this study was to develop energy futures under different growthconditions in Nepal for 2050 and describes how the sustainable energy supply can bemade by using backcasting method to develop scenarios.The major distinguishingcharacteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely tohappen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It involves workingbackwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order todetermine the physical feasibility of the futures and what policy measures would berequired to reach that point. Typically backcasting is applied on long-term complexissues, involving many aspects of society as well as technological innovations andchange. Furthermore in the long run, though, discontinuities are likely to occur andshould even be deliberately sought in some cases. Under these circumstances abackcasting approach is an interesting alternative. With these reasons, this studyuses the same method to develop scenarios. The future pictures developed bybackcasting approach are self-fulfilling, this study concludes two of three futurepictures are satisfying the aim of the study.
There are three scenarios namely, the high growth (HG), the medium growth (MG)and the business as usual (BAU) scenario developed in this study for year 2050.These scenarios are developed on the basis of future population and economicgrowth. The HG scenario considers highest economic growth rate of 9% while MGand BAU scenario considers the growth rate of 6% and 4% respectively. The BAUand MG scenario with 809, 1460 million GJ of energy demand respectively, meet theaim of the study (i.e. to meet the future energy demand by renewable energyresources in sustainable manner) while the HG scenario with energy demand of4300 million GJ unable to meet its energy demand by sustainable energy resources available in the country.
The energy crisis in Nepal is a major challenge for the current and future growth ofthe country. The aim of the study is to describe how to establish the sustainableenergy system under different growth scenarios, Nepal may have by 2050.The urgentneeds in Nepal’s energy sector are ; to reduce the country’s energy dependency, touse the resources efficiently and in a sustainable way and to provide the modern energy system on equitable basis. These needs can only be fulfilled with thesustainable use of renewable energy resources, which is sufficient in the country.The scenarios developed in the study are describing how these resources fulfillingthe future energy demand and how the demand can be reduced with the applicationof appropriate technology.
The gap of energy use significantly varies across the different strata of population;the study eliminates this gap by allocating energy on equitable basis. Nepal has oneof the lowest per-capita energy consumptions in the world; to know the level of per-capita energy consumption, this study estimates the same for each scenariosdeveloped in this study.
Several measures and technologies and their potential are presented in the study (todecrease the energy use or shifting into renewable energy fuels) and these measuresare a reality today or will be in the near future. For example the use of efficientcooking stove saves the fuelwood, passive building design reduces the heating andlighting requirements, and these technologies are already in practice. Thesemeasures have to be adopted in order to meet the demand by sustainable energysupply. Further these measures are fulfilling the objective of providing the cleanenergy to all. In all scenario the energy demand have been projected, afterward final(reduced) energy demand calculated by considering measures and technologies forreduction in energy use. This study primarily considers the measures andtechnologies to reduce the energy demand in residential sector, which is the highestenergy consuming sector. Based on the final demand the sustainable energy supplyhas been proposed for all scenarios. The scenarios are presented with three possiblealternatives for economic and population growth. The energy demand and supplysituation in each scenario tells whether the sustainable energy supply is possible ornot. Rather than comparison, these scenarios present the energy supply and demandsituation under the conditions they developed.
The three scenarios developed in this study are not exhausting the possible solutionsfor sustainable energy supply in Nepal. The technologies and measures and thefutures are not evaluated from the cost perspective. This means the study does notestimates, how much investment is required to realise these pictures hence it doesn’tanswer whether they are feasible from cost perspective or even desirable. The study also leaves out other perspectives like emissions reductions, earning through cleandevelopment mechanism (CDM) etc.
The purpose to present different energy-futures of Nepal is to encourage andstimulate stakeholders, policymakers and the citizens to take an active interest and tostart making the changes needed that leads to sustainable energy society.
The energy-futures show that together with the economic and population growth, theenergy use in future will increase as well. This is the reason for highest energydemand in the scenario which considers highest economic growth and this demandcannot be fulfilled by the renewable energy sources unless the technologicalbreakthrough in future. So high growth scenario does not satisfy the aim of the study;however rest of the two scenarios are well in line with the aim and objectives of the study.
The path to the presented energy-futures; the final step in the backcasting approachhas been left out in this study. The reason is due to, that requires further analysis ofthe energy-futures from several other perspectives as well as analysis over decisionmaking and planning processes and involvement of different stakeholders. Howeverthe presented energy-futures may in some cases indicate what type of measures anddecisions that needs to be taken and what kind of investments are needed.
The aim of the study is not to present the most probable energy future but the energyfutures that satisfy the objective of establishing the sustainable energy system inNepal. The renewable energy resources and the related technologies are mainlyconsidered to fulfill the future energy demand, which is the aim of the study. Finally,this study involves high degree of uncertainty due to fact that future is unknown and the uncertainty in collected data, calculations and assumptions made.
2008. , 128 p.