Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis
2011 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 20, no 2, 103-116 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.
A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 20, no 2, 103-116 p.
Growth curve models, curve fitting, logistic model, resource management
Other Mathematics Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
IdentifiersURN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-148906DOI: 10.1007/s11053-011-9139-zOAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-148906DiVA: diva2:403401