Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Descriptive and predictive growth curves in energy system analysis
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6379-7104
China University of Petroleum. (School of Business Administration)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Global Energy Systems. (Global Energy Systems)
University of Liverpool. (Management School)
2011 (English)In: Natural Resources Research, ISSN 1520-7439, E-ISSN 1573-8981, Vol. 20, no 2, 103-116 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.

A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2011. Vol. 20, no 2, 103-116 p.
Keyword [en]
Growth curve models, curve fitting, logistic model, resource management
National Category
Other Mathematics Physical Sciences Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Physics with specialization in Global Energy Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-148906DOI: 10.1007/s11053-011-9139-zOAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-148906DiVA: diva2:403401
Available from: 2011-03-13 Created: 2011-03-13 Last updated: 2015-01-08Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(441 kB)2208 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 441 kBChecksum SHA-512
5c0a64529ff528d79cef67d8d9bf6050f7d130be90386cb027257df7d478ff6b1625f67b6685c673373e7d5c86d06eef732ff1985be036a33f03a22084a540ce
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Höök, MikaelOba, Noriaki
By organisation
Global Energy Systems
In the same journal
Natural Resources Research
Other MathematicsPhysical SciencesOther Earth and Related Environmental SciencesOther Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 2208 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Altmetric score

Total: 451 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link