Change search
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Managerial foresight and firm performance
Linnaeus University, Faculty of Business, Economics and Design, Linnaeus School of Business and Economics.
2011 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Purpose – To specify what defines managerial foresight and to assess the association between managerial foresight and firm performance

Methodology/Approach – First, previous research was reviewed and foresight was defined. Second, an instrument for measuring managerial foresight was developed. Third, an empirical case served as an illustration and as anassessment of validity. Fourth, managerial foresight was tested for association with firm performance.

Findings – Foresight was specified as behavior with eight sub-components. A moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers’ foresight and firm performance was found.

Research implications – The empirical evidence for the importance of managerial foresight provides a strong rationale for further studies. In distinguishing eight sub-components of foresight, and developing a managerial foresight measurement instrument, the dissertation makes relating foresight to various research fields possible, both on individual managerial andorganizational levels.

Practical implications – Managers may consider whether foresight is important to them or to their organization. Managers, practical foresight tools, foresight programs et cetera, may now be assessed and compared in terms of foresight.

Originality/Value – The dissertation provides empirical evidence of the importance of managerial foresight to firm performance. It conceives and advances foresight as a distinct construct. In developing and estimating aninstrument for measuring managerial foresight, the dissertation advancesforesight into a quantitatively measurable concept.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Växjö, Kalmar: Linnaeus University Press , 2011. , 198 p.
Series
, Linnaeus University Dissertations, No 36/2011
National Category
Business Administration
Research subject
Economy, Business administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-10935ISBN: 978-91-86491-64-2OAI: oai:DiVA.org:lnu-10935DiVA: diva2:400060
Public defence
2011-02-25, Weber, Hus K, Linneuniversitetet, Växjö, 14:07 (Swedish)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2011-02-28 Created: 2011-02-24 Last updated: 2014-03-27Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Managerial foresight: concept and measurement
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Managerial foresight: concept and measurement
2008 (English)In: Foresight, ISSN 1463-6689, E-ISSN 1465-9832, Vol. 10, no 1, 53-66 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages and

definitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the concept

measurable.

Design/methodology/approach – A discussion on how to classify variables in the social sciences

serves as the starting-point. Next, a review of past definitions and usages of the concept foresight is

followed by further analysis and then synthesizing of the generic definition. The generic definition is

finally compared and contrasted with the related concepts of forecasting, strategic analysis, and

intuition.

Findings – Foresight is defined as behavior along three dimensions: degree of analyzing present

contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time; degree of

analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under

control; and degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future

state.

Research limitations/implications – The article makes foresight quantitatively measurable, which in

turn makes it possible to empirically measure the existence of foresight among managers and to test the

relationship between foresight and organizational performance.

Practical implications – Practical foresight tools and programs, etc. can now be assessed and

compared by both practitioners and researchers.

Originality/value – In identifying three fundamental behavioral dimensions of foresight, the article

conceives and advances foresight as a distinct concept that can be related to several research areas,

both on individual (e.g. managerial) and organizational levels.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald, 2008
Keyword
Behaviour, Forward planning, Managers, Organizational behaviour
National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy, Marketing
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:vxu:diva-3399 (URN)10.1108/14636680810856026 (DOI)
Available from: 2008-05-06 Created: 2008-05-06 Last updated: 2013-07-22Bibliographically approved
2. Managerial foresight: measurement scale and estimation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Managerial foresight: measurement scale and estimation
2011 (English)In: Foresight, ISSN 1463-6689, E-ISSN 1465-9832, Vol. 13, no 1, 58-76 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose – This paper aims to develop and assess an instrument measuring managerial foresight.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper outlines the construction and estimation of the instrumentthrough a seven-step process. A total of 57 preliminary Likert items were developed based on an extantreview and synthesis of definitions of foresight. The items were assessed through interviews andpre-testing. A preliminary instrument was administered to a selection of managers. Exploratory andconfirmatory factor analyses were employed to assess sub-scales and model fit. The instrument wasevaluated in terms of reliability and validity.

Findings – The study demonstrates a valid and reliable 12 Likert item scale for measuring managerialforesight.Research limitations/implications – Managerial foresight can now be assessed and tested forassociation with, for example, managerial or organizational performance variables.

Practical implications – Managers can now be assessed and compared in terms of foresight.Originality/value – In developing and estimating an instrument for measuring managerial foresight, thepaper advances foresight into a quantitatively measurable concept.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2011
Keyword
Business planning, Measurement, Strategic planning
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-10929 (URN)10.1108/14636681111109705 (DOI)
Available from: 2011-02-24 Created: 2011-02-24 Last updated: 2012-01-17Bibliographically approved
3. Managers' foresight matters
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Managers' foresight matters
2011 (English)In: Foresight, ISSN 1463-6689, E-ISSN 1465-9832, Vol. 13, no 2, 64-78 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose – To assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

Design/methodology/approach – An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify thepresumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. Apositive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. Thehypothesis is tested through Spearman’s rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computerprogramming industry. Managers’ foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.

Findings – A moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers’foresight and firm performance.

Theoretical implications – There is support for the theoretical relationship betweenmanagerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.

Originality/value – The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance ofmanagerial foresight for firm performance.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald, 2011
Keyword
Managers, Forward planning, Company performance, Sweden
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-10931 (URN)10.1108/14636681111126256 (DOI)
Available from: 2011-02-24 Created: 2011-02-24 Last updated: 2013-04-25Bibliographically approved
4. A Valid Matter for Managerial Foresight
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Valid Matter for Managerial Foresight
2012 (English)In: Journal of Futures Studies, ISSN 1027-6084, Vol. 17, no 2, 59-74 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The purpose of this paper is to qualitatively assess the validity of the managerial foresight concept. Social, environmental and technological aspects of past developments of a company, as well as self reported managerial behavior are interpreted and analyzed in terms of foresight and in terms of eight sub-components of the managerial foresight concept. The results of the study reveal that developments of the company and the managers’ behavior may be interpreted in terms of their foresight. It appears that individuals rather than structured procedures have been the ones who decide and define technology and operations. Evidence is provided for the construct validity of a definition of managerial foresight and for the potential significance of specific individuals’ foresight. Qualitative empirical evidence is added to theexistent pool of quantitative evidence for the construct validity of the managerial foresightconcept. The potential importance of foresight at the level of individual managers’ is illustrated.

National Category
Economics and Business
Research subject
Economy
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-10934 (URN)
Available from: 2011-02-24 Created: 2011-02-24 Last updated: 2015-09-15Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1045 kB)1364 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1045 kBChecksum SHA-512
562875abc871ce6fa5772cf1e59ab34b40c2c7f301afe7bae7dcb31d45e638b9b32600051ed70a0e431996e79e61ba9e411da74c024aec4469acdda1a1ff7ed7
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Amsteus, Martin
By organisation
Linnaeus School of Business and Economics
Business Administration

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 1364 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

Total: 1166 hits
ReferencesLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link