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Weather warning archives reveal spatio-temporal hot spots of compound natural hazards
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology. Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Hydrol Res, Norrkoping, Sweden..
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology. Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Hydrol Res, Norrkoping, Sweden.;Lund Univ, Div Water Resources Engn, Lund, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5907-4061
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology. Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Hydrol Res, Norrkoping, Sweden..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1469-2568
SMHI, Research Department, Hydrology. Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Hydrol Res, Norrkoping, Sweden..
2025 (English)In: Scientific Reports, E-ISSN 2045-2322, Vol. 15, no 1, article id 13330Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Individual natural hazards may be combined in different ways, leading to cascading or co-occurring effects, turning them into compound hazards. However, assessment of individual as well as compound hazards is often hampered by short or incomplete observational records of actual hazards, and records of various hazards that do not easily combine. In this study we propose an alternative way to detect potential risk of compound natural hazards via archived severe weather warnings. We investigate weather warnings in Sweden from 2011 to 2020 regarding their distributions and frequencies in time (at daily level) and space (at warning district level) from both an individual and compound perspective. We illustrate the methodology and results by focusing on compound flood-related risk, generated by combinations of heavy rainfall, high streamflow and high sea level, and contextualize with two actual compound flood events in Sweden. We find compound fluvial and coastal flood risk primarily along the southwest coast during the winter half year as well as compound fluvio-pluvial flood risk during the summer half year. The results show that severe weather warnings can be used to assess the frequency and compounding nature of natural hazards, as well as to identify actual cases for further investigation, and we encourage similar investigations elsewhere.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
NATURE PORTFOLIO , 2025. Vol. 15, no 1, article id 13330
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6752DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-96842-6ISI: 001470272500011PubMedID: 40247027OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6752DiVA, id: diva2:1956583
Available from: 2025-05-06 Created: 2025-05-06 Last updated: 2025-05-06Bibliographically approved

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