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Incorporating ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects in cumulative impact assessment models
SMHI, Research Department, Oceanography. Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Res Dept, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden..
Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Inst Marine Res, Dept Aquat Resources, S-45330 Lysekil, Sweden..
UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Arctic Univ Museum Norway, N-9007 Tromso, Norway..
Sodertorn Univ, Sch Nat Sci Technol & Environm Studies, S-14189 Huddinge, Sweden..
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2025 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Management, ISSN 0301-4797, E-ISSN 1095-8630, Vol. 381, article id 125268Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The cumulative impact of anthropogenic pressures on coastal seas is important to consider for a strategic and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. We aim to demonstrate how, and to what extent, incorporating interactions among ecosystem components (species and habitats) and indirect effects of pressures through other ecosystem components can develop existing cumulative impact assessment (CIA) models. A Swedish case study area was selected to test a simplified version of the extended regional Symphony CIA model. Five pollution- and climate-driven pressures acting on three trophically connected ecosystem components, i.e. cod, herring and plankton species/organism groups, were used. In addition, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the impact weight scores for an advancement of the method. The results from the development of CIA models clearly indicate the importance of introducing ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects into CIA models. The total cumulative impact increased by 117 % in the test area, but even more importantly, the development of the model resulted in a spatially more detailed outcome with a greater spatial variability in the magnitude of the total cumulative impact. New areas were highlighted that are under pressure compared to the original model. Thus, the development of the model captures cumulative impacts that would otherwise be overlooked if ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects were ignored. These types of changes to CIA models are required to increase the predictive power and ecological relevance to accommodate solid holistic and ecosystem-based marine management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD , 2025. Vol. 381, article id 125268
Keywords [en]
Cumulative impact assessment models, Methodological advancements, Ecosystem component interactions, Direct and indirect effects
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Research subject
Oceanography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6754DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125268ISI: 001471126600001PubMedID: 40228467OAI: oai:DiVA.org:smhi-6754DiVA, id: diva2:1956574
Available from: 2025-05-06 Created: 2025-05-06 Last updated: 2025-05-06Bibliographically approved

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