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Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Scientific Computing Programme, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, NJ, Princeton, United States.
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
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2025 (English)In: PloS Computational Biology, ISSN 1553-734X, E-ISSN 1553-7358, Vol. 21, no 4 APRIL, article id e1012771Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, identify gaps in surveillance, estimate disease burden, and target and evaluate the impact of interventions. Here, we describe how current approaches to mapping arboviral diseases have become unnecessarily siloed, ignoring the strengths and weaknesses of different data types and methods. This places limits on data and model output comparability, uncertainty estimation and generalisation that limit the answers they can provide to some of the most pressing questions in arbovirus control. We argue for a new generation of risk mapping models that jointly infer risk from multiple data types. We outline how this can be achieved conceptually and show how this new framework creates opportunities to better integrate epidemiological understanding and uncertainty quantification. We advocate for more co-development of risk maps among modellers and end-users to better enable risk maps to inform public health decisions. Prospective validation of risk maps for specific applications can inform further targeted data collection and subsequent model refinement in an iterative manner. If the expanding use of arbovirus risk maps for control is to continue, methods must develop and adapt to changing questions, interventions and data availability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025. Vol. 21, no 4 APRIL, article id e1012771
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Epidemiology Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
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URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-238240DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012771ISI: 001460001700007PubMedID: 40184562Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105001950828OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-238240DiVA, id: diva2:1955227
Available from: 2025-04-29 Created: 2025-04-29 Last updated: 2025-04-29Bibliographically approved

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