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The 2020 Belarusian presidential election and conspiracy theories in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict
Univ Oslo, Oslo, Norway..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Stockholm Ctr Eastern European Studies.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1917-0136
2022 (English)In: International Affairs, ISSN 0020-5850, E-ISSN 1468-2346, Vol. 98, no 3, p. 973-994Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This article contributes to the growing literature on how authoritarian regimes deploy disinformation and conspiracy theories to achieve foreign policy goals. While the effectiveness of these measures is disputed, our study-which is based on a rarely occurring natural experiment-makes an empirical contribution in this direction. Based on the analysis of survey materials collected in Mariupol, Ukraine, around the time of the tumultuous events surrounding the Belarusian presidential election of 2020, we show that, given the right conditions, a critical juncture event in one country can rapidly influence existing patterns of relevant conspiracy belief in a neighbouring one. The right conditions, in this case, include a massive disinformation campaign channelled through (pro-)Russian media, against the backdrop of conspiracy theories already in circulation in Ukraine. The implication of this finding is that the disinformation weapon becomes far more effective when it manages to offer a straightforward explanation (a conspiracy theory) of a critical juncture event that is otherwise complex and multilayered, and that adequate psychological defence mechanisms are needed to mitigate and counter this effect.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Oxford University Press, 2022. Vol. 98, no 3, p. 973-994
Keywords [en]
Conspiracy theory, critical juncture, Ukraine, Belarus, disinformation, Russia
National Category
Political Science (Excluding Peace and Conflict Studies)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-554838DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiac053ISI: 000784514500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85132510336OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-554838DiVA, id: diva2:1952929
Available from: 2025-04-16 Created: 2025-04-16 Last updated: 2025-04-16Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf