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Improving PV Performance Prediction for High-Latitude Regions: Insights from Irradiance Modeling and Building Energy Simulation
Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Energy Technology. Dalarna University, School of Information and Engineering, Energy Systems in the Built Environment.ORCID iD: 0009-0003-4092-2536
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Description
Abstract [en]

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are critical for renewable energy expansion, potentially surpassing hydropower as the number one renewable energy source globally by 2029. However, accurate PV performance modeling in high latitudes remains challenging due to unique climatic conditions and solar irradiance variability. This thesis addresses these challenges by assessing the accuracy of PV power prediction in the building energy simulation software IDA ICE and investigating the “inverse problem”, Global Tilted Irradiance (GTI) reverse transposition and separation. Two studies were conducted and are presented in this thesis: (1) a validation of IDA ICE simulations using data from two BAPV and one BIPV system, measured in Borås, Sweden, (latitude 57.7) and (2) an evaluation of GTI reverse transposition and separation models, based on data measured in Glava, Sweden, (latitude 59.5). Results show that PV simulation integrated in the IDA ICE whole building energy models is comparably accurate to that of stand-alone PV design tools, though further studies are needed to evaluate performance under shading conditions and for simulation of colored PV. Furthermore, two suitable GTI reverse transposition and separation models were identified for application at high latitudes. These were the proposed optimization model with ENGERER2 and HAY & DAVIES transposition and the established PEREZ-DRIESSE model. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Borlänge: Dalarna University, 2025.
Series
Dalarna Licentiate Theses ; 23
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-50395ISBN: 978-91-88679-94-9 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-50395DiVA, id: diva2:1948235
Presentation
2025-04-25, room B205, campus Borlänge, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2025-04-01 Created: 2025-03-28 Last updated: 2025-04-01Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. PV Modeling in IDA ICE 5.0 (beta): Performance Analysis Based on Measured Data in High Latitudes
Open this publication in new window or tab >>PV Modeling in IDA ICE 5.0 (beta): Performance Analysis Based on Measured Data in High Latitudes
2023 (English)In: Proceedings of the 40th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition in Lisbon, Portugal, München: WIP, 2023, , p. 6Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In recent years, the widespread adoption of photovoltaic (PV) installations across various sectors has created a growing demand for accurate PV design tools. In this pursuit, the latest version of IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (IDA ICE 5 beta) emerges as a contender, offering advanced PV modeling capabilities, together with the advanced building simulation capabilities it already has. This study evaluates the accuracy of PV modeling within IDA ICE by comparing predicted power outputs to real-world data from three existing PV systems located at the Research Institute of Sweden (RISE) in Borås. To achieve this, weather files are created using historical weather and radiation data. As the measured radiation data is only available as total irradiation on a tilted plane, it was deconstructed into direct and diffuse components on the horizontal plane using a modified version of the model by Erbs et al.. Additional known parameters are the geometry of the PV array, and the characteristics of PV panel and inverter, based on their product data sheets. The accuracy of the PV design tool in IDA ICE is evaluated by comparing the power output of unshaded arrays against the measured data from RISE. The calculated power output is compared to the measured power output and analyzed through ASHRAE 14-2014 guidelines for performance evaluation. It was found that the software gives an accurate prediction of both panel temperature and PV power production. A study on shading effects is an open problem to improve the generality of the results in this study.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
München: WIP, 2023. p. 6
Keywords
PV Array, PV Modeling, Renewable Energy Planning, IDA ICE, Building Energy Simulation
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-47506 (URN)10.4229/EUPVSEC2023/4DV.4.48 (DOI)3-936338-88-4 (ISBN)
Conference
EU PVSEC 2023, Lisbon, 18-22 September 2023
Funder
SOLVE, 52693-1
Available from: 2023-12-18 Created: 2023-12-18 Last updated: 2025-03-28Bibliographically approved
2. Evaluation of Reverse Transposition and Separation Methods for Global Tilted Irradiance: Insights from High-Latitude Data
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluation of Reverse Transposition and Separation Methods for Global Tilted Irradiance: Insights from High-Latitude Data
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Accurate separation of global tilted irradiance (GTI) becomes importantwhen the measured irradiance is used for quality control or PV simulationpurposes, for which the latter often requires global horizontalirradiance (GHI), or diffuse and beam irradiance fractions. This studypresents an evaluation of irradiance reverse transposition and separationmodels for the application with GTI in high latitudes. The evaluationis made based on measured and quality controlled six-second irradiancefrom latitude 59.53°N, containing GTI at 30°, 40°, and 90° tiltangles, as well as GHI and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI). Basedon a literature review, two specialized GTI reverse transposition andseparation models - GTI-DIRINT and Perez-Driesse - and four GHIseparation models were chosen for evaluation. The latter were testedin an optimization loop developed for this study that utilizes existingGHI separation models combined with transposition models for reversetransposition and separation of GTI. Specifically, the separation modelsErbs, Skartveit1, Engerer2, and Yang4 were tested with Hay &Davies and Perez1990 transposition.The models were investigated using both statistical evaluation metricsand Diebold-Mariano test to compare measured and predicted GHI and DHI. An evaluation with measured data showed that for GTI reversetransposition and separation at high latitudes, the use of the proposedoptimization model with Engerer2 in combination with Hay & Daviestransposition, or the Perez-Driesse model is recommended. This isbased on overall good ranking and low bias of GHI prediction with -2.0W/m2 and -2.3 W/m2, respectively.

Keywords
Global Tilted Irradiance, Separation Modeling, Reverse Transposition, High Latitudes, PV
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Research Centres, Sustainable Energy Research Centre (SERC)
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:du-50396 (URN)
Available from: 2025-03-28 Created: 2025-03-28 Last updated: 2025-03-28

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