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Avoidable false PSMC population size peaks occur across numerous studies
LOEWE Ctr Translat Biodivers Genom, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany.;Senckenberg Res Inst, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany.;Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Cell Biol & Neurosci, Fac Biosci, Max von Laue Str 9, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany..ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3539-2513
LOEWE Ctr Translat Biodivers Genom, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany.;Senckenberg Res Inst, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany.;Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Cell Biol & Neurosci, Fac Biosci, Max von Laue Str 9, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Animal ecology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1766-560x
Max Planck Inst Mol Cell Biol & Genet, D-01307 Dresden, Germany.;Tech Univ Dresden, DRESDEN Concept Genome Ctr DcGC, Ctr Mol & Cellular Bioengn, D-01069 Dresden, Germany.;Leibniz Inst Zoo & Wildlife Res, D-10315 Berlin, Germany..ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8293-4816
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2025 (English)In: Current Biology, ISSN 0960-9822, E-ISSN 1879-0445, Vol. 35, no 4Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Inferring historical population sizes is key to identifying drivers of ecological and evolutionary change and crucial to predicting the future of species on our rapidly changing planet. The pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method provided a revolutionary framework to reconstruct species' demographic histories over millions of years based on the genome sequence of a single individual. Here, we detected and solved a common artifact in PSMC and related methods: recent population peaks followed by population collapses. Combining real and simulated genomes, we show that these peaks do not represent true population dynamics. Instead, ill-set default parameters cause false peaks in our own and published data, which can be avoided by adjusting parameter settings. Furthermore, we show that certain changes in population structure can cause similar patterns. Newer methods, like Beta-PSMC, perform better but do not always avoid this artifact. Our results suggest testing multiple parameters that split the first time window before interpreting recent population peaks followed by collapses and call for the development of robust methods.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 35, no 4
National Category
Evolutionary Biology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-552094DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2024.09.028ISI: 001433348900001PubMedID: 39919744Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85217901782OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-552094DiVA, id: diva2:1943953
Funder
Swedish Research Council, 2020-03398Available from: 2025-03-12 Created: 2025-03-12 Last updated: 2025-03-12Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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