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Data Reduction in Proportional Hazards Models Applied to Reliability Prediction of Centrifugal Pumps
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics. Petronor, 48550 Muskiz, Spain.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4757-4461
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4107-0991
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8111-6918
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Operation, Maintenance and Acoustics. Fragum Global, LLC, Mountain View, CA 90012, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0240-0943
2025 (English)In: Machines, E-ISSN 2075-1702, Vol. 13, no 3, article id 215Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the use of proportional hazards regression models for predicting the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of centrifugal pumps in the oil and gas industry. To that end, a dataset collected over 8 years including both design and operational variables from 675 pumps in an oil refinery was used to fit statistical models. Parametric and non-parametric transformations and restricted cubic splines were used to fit the covariates, thereby relaxing linearity assumptions and potentiating predictors with strong nonlinear effects on the outcome. Standard Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and sparse robust PCA methods were used for data reduction to simplify the fitted models and minimize overfitting. Models fitted with sparse robust PCA on non-parametrically transformed variables using an additive variance stabilizing (AVAS) method are suggested for further investigation. The complexity of the fitted models was reduced by 85% while at the same time providing for a more robust model as indicated by an improvement of the calibration slope from 0.830 to 0.936 with an essentially stable Akaike information criterion (AIC) (0.34% increase).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2025. Vol. 13, no 3, article id 215
Keywords [en]
centrifugal pumps, MTBF, API standard, reliability prediction, proportional hazards model, data reduction
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-111941DOI: 10.3390/machines13030215OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-111941DiVA, id: diva2:1943414
Note

Validerad;2025;Nivå 2;2025-03-10 (u2);

Full text: CC BY license;

Available from: 2025-03-10 Created: 2025-03-10 Last updated: 2025-03-10Bibliographically approved

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Vila Forteza, MarcGalar, DiegoKumar, UdayGoebel, Kai
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