Commodity Time Series Momentum and the impact of Market Stress
2025 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE credits
Student thesis
Abstract [en]
This thesis investigates the momentum effect in the commodity market. The research approach used in this thesis is deductive and quantitative, utilizing daily data for 23 commodity future contracts with a time frame ranging from 2007 to 2024. Two different portfolio formation techniques are employed with various formation and holding periods, following the method of Moskowitz et al. (2012).
Findings show significant momentum effects in short term horizons for both holding and formation periods, with the optimal portfolio with one-month formation and holding period yielding 0,45% monthly return (see table 4.1). The strategy has exceptional performance during recession periods, with the volatility-adjusted long-short portfolio (one-month formation, three-month holding period) achieving monthly returns of 2.98%. The persistence of significant alpha in the five-factor model, particularly in short horizons, indicates that momentum represents both market inefficiency and risk premium components.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
Time-series momentum, Commodity markets, Market efficiency, Economic stress, Volatility Adjusting
National Category
Business Administration Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-240367OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-240367DiVA, id: diva2:1942642
Supervisors
Examiners
2025-03-062025-03-052025-03-06Bibliographically approved