Digitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet

Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Reduced order modeling of wave energy systems via sequential Bayesian experimental design and machine learning
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), SE 75236, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5096-3559
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7434-5031
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Electricity. Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), SE 75236, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9213-6447
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0302-0691
2025 (English)In: Applied Ocean Research, ISSN 0141-1187, E-ISSN 1879-1549, Vol. 155, article id 104439Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Marine energy technologies face significant challenges in ensuring their survivability under extreme ocean conditions. Quantifying extreme load statistics on marine energy structures is essential for reliable structural design; however, this is a challenging task due to the scarcity of high-quality data and the inherent uncertainties associated with predicting rare events. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can accurately capture the nonlinear dynamics and loads in extreme wave–structure interactions, providing high-fidelity data, extracting statistical information through these models is computationally impractical. This study proposes a reduced-order modeling framework for marine energy systems, enabling efficient analysis across diverse scenarios, and facilitating the quantification of extreme load statistics with significantly reduced computational cost. Specifically, a hybrid reduced-order or surrogate model for a wave energy converter is developed to map extreme sea states and design parameters to the resulting loads in the mooring system. The term ”hybrid” refers to the combination of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. The model is developed using two distinct approaches: (1) a baseline approach that relies on existing CFD data for training and validation, and (2) an active learning approach that strategically selects the most informative CFD samples from regions of the input space associated with extreme mooring loads. This procedure iteratively refines the model while minimizing prediction uncertainty, making it particularly effective for real-world applications where obtaining each sample requires substantial time and resources. The developed model demonstrates its exceptional ability to efficiently predict complex load time series, including instantaneous peaks, at speeds significantly faster than traditional modeling methods. Subsequently, the model is utilized to effectively evaluate Monte Carlo samples, providing accurate estimates of the probability of extreme mooring loads. Understanding the expected extreme loads is essential during the design phase of marine energy systems, enabling cost reduction by optimizing strength margins, refining overly conservative safety factors, and enhancing overall system reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 155, article id 104439
Keywords [en]
Extreme events, Gaussian process regression (GPR), LSTM neural networks, Surrogate models, Active sampling, Sequential Bayesian experimental design, Wave energy system, CFD simulations
National Category
Energy Systems Marine Engineering Computer Vision and Learning Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-551690DOI: 10.1016/j.apor.2025.104439ISI: 001423739900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85216900613OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-551690DiVA, id: diva2:1941287
Funder
Stiftelsen Anna Maria Lundins stipendiefond, AMh2021-0023Stiftelsen Liljewalchska donationenAvailable from: 2025-02-28 Created: 2025-02-28 Last updated: 2025-03-20Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(2203 kB)49 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 2203 kBChecksum SHA-512
086c85c0793a8635458e07c67f4151d2be215d73e5246049943ff1954129034ce92997807795941ff11ecc2bd9cc8f0ab0bd0697faf7ca88193b5b196591f485
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textScopus

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Katsidoniotaki, EiriniGuth, StephenGöteman, MalinSapsis, Themistoklis P.
By organisation
Electricity
In the same journal
Applied Ocean Research
Energy SystemsMarine EngineeringComputer Vision and Learning Systems

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 49 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 198 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf