Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Conceptual runoff models - fiction or representation of reality?
Uppsala University, Teknisk-naturvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences.
1999 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Available observations are often not sufficient as a basis for decision making in water management. Conceptual runoff models are frequently used as tools for a wide range of tasks to compensate the lack of measurements, e.g., to extend runoff series, compute design floods and predict the leakage of nutrients or the effects of a climatic change. Conceptual runoff models are practical tools, especially if the reliability in their predictions can be assessed. Testing of these models is usually based solely on comparison of simulated and observed runoff, although most models also simulate other fluxes and states. Such tests do not allow thorough assessment ofmodel-prediction reliability. In this thesis, two widespread conceptual models, the HBV modeland TOPMODEL, were tested using a catalogue of methods for model validation (defined as estimation of confidence in model simulations). The worth of multi-criteria validation forevaluating model consistency was emphasised. Both models were capable to simulate runoffadequately after calibration, whereas the performance for some of the other validation tests wasless satisfactory. The impossibility to identify unique parameter values caused large uncertainties in model predictions for the HBV model. The parameter uncertainty was reducedwhen groundwater levels were included into the calibration, whereas groundwater-levelsimulations were in weak agreement with observations when the model was calibrated againstonly runoff. The agreement of TOP-MODEL simulations with spatially distributed data was weak for both groundwater levels and the distribution of saturated areas. Furthermore, validation against hydrological common sense revealed weaknesses in the TOPMODEL approach. In summary these results indicated limitations of conceptual runoff models and highlighted the need for powarful validation methods. The use of such methods enables assessment of the reliability of model predictions. It also supports the further development of models by identification of weak parts and evalution of improvements.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis , 1999. , p. 52
Series
Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology, ISSN 1104-232X ; 436
Keyword [en]
Earth sciences, Validation, conceptual runoff models, calibration, uncertainty, TOPMODEL, HBV model, groundwater levels, spatial distribution, topography
Keyword [sv]
Geovetenskap
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-290ISBN: 91-554-4402-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-290DiVA, id: diva2:162153
Public defence
1999-04-09, Axel Hamberg-salen, Geocentrum, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, Uppsala, 10:00
Available from: 1999-03-19 Created: 1999-03-19Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(794 kB)3544 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 794 kBChecksum SHA-1
1a4afd07f019fd9062a06565dd9900113dabb558aaa8b2537930e3f25a943ffefaffebd9
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf
Buy this publication >>

By organisation
Department of Earth Sciences
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 3544 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

isbn
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

isbn
urn-nbn
Total: 1044 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf