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Interannual variability of the midsummer drought in Central America and the connection with sea surface temperatures
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL. Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Geophys Res, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica. (Centre for Natural Disaster Science)
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7656-1881
Univ Costa Rica, Sch Phys, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Geophys Res, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Res Marine Sci & Limnol, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica.
Univ Costa Rica, Sch Phys, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica;Univ Costa Rica, Ctr Geophys Res, San Jose 115012060, Costa Rica.
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2016 (English)In: 3Rd International Conference On El Nino: Bridging The Gaps Between Global Enso Science And Regional Processes: Extremes And Impacts / [ed] Martinez, R PabonCaicedo, JD, 2016, p. 35-50Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The midsummer drought (MSD) in Central America is characterised in order to create annual indexes representing the timing of its phases (start, minimum and end), and other features relevant for MSD forecasting such as the intensity and the magnitude. The MSD intensity is defined as the minimum rainfall detected during the MSD, meanwhile the magnitude is the total precipitation divided by the total days between the start and end of the MSD. It is shown that the MSD extends along the Pacific coast, however, a similar MSD structure was detected also in two stations in the Caribbean side of Central America, located in Nicaragua. The MSD intensity and magnitude show a negative relationship with Nino 3.4 and a positive relationship with the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) index, however for the Caribbean stations the results were not statistically significant, which is indicating that other processes might be modulating the precipitation during the MSD over the Caribbean coast. On the other hand, the temporal variables (start, minimum and end) show low and no significant correlations with the same indexes. The results from canonical correlation analysis (CCA) show good performance to study the MSD intensity and magnitude, however, for the temporal indexes the performance is not satisfactory due to the low skill to predict the MSD phases. Moreover, we find that CCA shows potential predictability of the MSD intensity and magnitude using sea surface temperatures (SST) with leading times of up to 3 months. Using CCA as diagnostic tool it is found that during June, an SST dipole pattern upon the neighbouring waters to Central America is the main variability mode controlling the inter-annual variability of the MSD features. However, there is also evidence that the regional waters are playing an important role in the annual modulation of the MSD features. The waters in the PDO vicinity might be also controlling the rainfall during the MSD, however, exerting an opposite effect at the north and south regions of Central America.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. p. 35-50
National Category
Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-400859DOI: 10.5194/adgeo-42-35-2016ISI: 000451501700004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-400859DiVA, id: diva2:1382628
Conference
3rd International ENSO Conference on Bridging the Gaps between the Global ENSO Science and the Regional Processes - Extremes and Impacts, NOV 12-14, 2014, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Available from: 2020-01-03 Created: 2020-01-03 Last updated: 2020-01-03Bibliographically approved

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