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A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict
Peace Research Institute Oslo .ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6432-5985
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5372-7129
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5251-7309
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Peace and Conflict Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9492-1596
2020 (English)In: Journal of Politics, ISSN 0022-3816, E-ISSN 1468-2508Article in journal (Refereed) Accepted
Abstract [en]

Common political economy models point to rationalist motives for engaging in conflict but say little about how income shocks translate into collective violence in some cases but not in others. Grievance models, in contrast, focus on structural origins of shared frustration but offer less insight into when the deprived decide to challenge the status quo. Addressing these lacunae, we develop a theoretical model of civil conflict that predicts income loss to trigger violent mobilization primarily when the shock can be linked to pre-existing collective grievances. The conditional argument is supported by results of a comprehensive global statistical analysis of conflict involvement among ethnic groups. Consistent with theory, we find that this relationship is most powerful among recently downgraded groups, especially in the context of agricultural dependence and low local level of development, whereas political downgrading in the absence of adverse economic changes exerts less influence on ethnic conflict risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2020.
Keywords [en]
Civil war; grievance; ethnicity; economic shock; opportunity cost
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Peace and Conflict Research; Peace and Conflict Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-397447OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-397447DiVA, id: diva2:1371622
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, 2016- 06389Swedish Research Council Formas, 2016- 06389Swedish Research Council, 2016- 06389EU, European Research Council, 648291EU, European Research Council, 694640Available from: 2019-11-20 Created: 2019-11-20 Last updated: 2019-11-27Bibliographically approved

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Buhaug, HalvardCroicu, MihaiFjelde, Hannevon Uexkull, Nina
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