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Solar PV in prosumer energy systems: A techno-economic analysis on sizing, integration, and risk
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology, Applied Thermodynamics and Refrigeration.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2603-7595
2019 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

In the transition towards a sustainable energy system, building mounted solar photovoltaics (PV) have unique benefits; they require no additional land and the energy is generated directly at load centers. Within residential buildings, multi-family homes (MFH) are particularly interesting because of the economies of scale and their greater potential for emissions reductions.

This thesis identifies and describes value propositions for solar PV within Swedish multi-family houses via three branches of inquiry; system sizing optimization, quantification of investment risk, and the techno-economic potential of PV/thermal (PVT) collectors integrated with ground source heat pumps (GSHP). Underpinning these investigations is a comprehensive review of technical and economic models for solar PV, resulting in a catalogue of performance indicators and applied techniques.

From the sizing analysis, no objective, techno-economically optimal PV system size is found without including the prosumer’s personal motives. Prioritizing return on investment results in small systems, whereas systems sized for net-zero energy can be profitable in some buildings. There is also a strong economic incentive to adopt communal electricity metering to increase self-consumption, system size, and economic return. Monte Carlo analysis is used to quantify investment uncertainty, finding that well-designed systems have an 81% chance of earning a 3% real return on investment, and even without subsidies there is a calculated 100% chance of having a positive return. PVT integrated GSHP can reduce the land needed for boreholes by up to 87% with a lower lifecycle cost than district heating, thereby broadening the heat pump market and reducing barriers to heating electrification.

The quantitative results provide guidance for Swedish MFH owners while the methodology presents solar PV value in a more useful manner for prosumers to identify their personal motives in decision making. This approach is also useful for researchers, business leaders, and policy makers to understand the prosumer perspective and promote adoption of PV in the built environment.

Abstract [sv]

I övergången mot ett hållbart energisystem har takmonterade solceller unika fördelar; de kräver ingen extra mark och elenergin genereras direkt där den behövs. Inom bostadssektorn är flerfamiljshus särskilt intressanta på grund av stordriftsfördelar och deras större möjlighet att bidra till minskade utsläpp.

Denna avhandling identifierar och beskriver värdeerbjudanden för solceller i svenska flerfamiljshus via tre frågeställningar; optimering av installationens storlek, kvantifiering av investeringsrisken och den teknisk-ekonomiska potentialen för PV/termiska (PVT) paneler integrerade med bergvärmepump. Analysen grundas på en omfattande genomgång av tekniska och ekonomiska modeller för solceller, vilket resulterar i en katalog över prestandaindikatorer och tillämpbara utvärderingstekniker.

I analysen av storlekens betydelse hittas inget objektiv, tekniskt-ekonomiskt optimalt system utan bästa storlek beror av prosumentens personliga motiv. Att prioritera avkastning på kapitalet ger mindre system, medan lägre krav kan ge större storlek som når netto-noll energi med godtagbar avkastning. Det finns också ett starkt ekonomiskt incitament att använda gemensam mätning av fastighets- och lägenhetsel för att öka egen-förbrukningen, systemstorleken och den ekonomiska avkastningen. Monte Carlo-analys har använts för att kvantifiera investeringarnas osäkerhet och visar att väl utformade system har 81% chans att ge 3% avkastning, och även utan subventioner finns en 100% chans att få positiv avkastning. Om PVT integreras med bergvärmepump kan markytan för borrhål minskas med upp till 87% och ge en lägre livscykelkostnad än fjärrvärme, vilket kan bredda värmepumpmarknaden och minska hindren för elektrifiering av uppvärmningen.

Resultaten ger vägledning för svenska husägare då metodiken ger verktyg att identifiera personliga motiv i beslutsfattandet. Metoden är också användbar för forskare, företagsledare och beslutsfattare för att förstå prosument-perspektivet och främja installationen av solceller i den byggda miljön.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2019. , p. 109
Series
TRITA-ITM-AVL ; 2019:38
Keywords [en]
Electrify everything, building energy systems, energy systems analysis, solar heat pump, investment analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, PVT, solar hybrid
Keywords [sv]
Electrify everything, byggnadsenergisystem, energisystemanalys, solvärmepump, investeringsanalys, Monte Carlo analys, PVT, solhybrid
National Category
Energy Engineering Energy Systems
Research subject
Energy Technology; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263896ISBN: 978-91-7873-375-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-263896DiVA, id: diva2:1371035
Public defence
2019-12-16, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256Swedish Energy Agency, 40936-1Available from: 2019-11-22 Created: 2019-11-19 Last updated: 2019-11-22Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. On the use of hourly pricing in techno-economic analyses for solar photovoltaic systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>On the use of hourly pricing in techno-economic analyses for solar photovoltaic systems
2015 (English)In: Energy Conversion and Management, ISSN 0196-8904, E-ISSN 1879-2227, Vol. 102, no SI, p. 180-189Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The use of hourly prices in distributed photovoltaic (PV) techno-economic analysis is rare, but may become necessary as time-of-day retail pricing becomes more common. A methodology is presented for selecting an hourly price curve suitable for long-term analysis, called the typical price year (TPY), which is based on the methodology for TMY weather data. Using a techno-economic analysis with annual revenues and net present value as indicators, a TPY curve for the Swedish market is validated and then compared to 18 price simplification methods to determine the error introduced by the use of non-hourly prices. Results show that the TPY method produces a curve which accurately represents long term pricing trends, but using a static annual mean introduces minor revenue errors of 1.3%. This suggests the TPY may not be necessary in the Swedish market, but further analysis of the method is suggested for other markets.

Keywords
Solar PV, Techno-economic analysis, Dynamic prices, Time-of-use, Hourly, Typical price year
National Category
Energy Systems Economics
Research subject
Energy Technology; Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-164521 (URN)10.1016/j.enconman.2015.02.054 (DOI)000358809400019 ()2-s2.0-84947495482 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council Formas, 2012-256
Note

QC 20150911

Available from: 2015-04-17 Created: 2015-04-17 Last updated: 2019-11-19Bibliographically approved
2. Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one - Review
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one - Review
2017 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 74, p. 1379-1393Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The market for solar photovoltaic systems is growing rapidly into a mature industry, while at the same time policies which have spurred the growth (e.g. feed-in tariffs or net metering) are beginning to fade away. These policies made techno-economic studies relatively simple for engineers, analysts, and owners, however investing in a deregulated market requires more advanced tools than the traditional engineering economics which dominate the literature. The objective of part one in this paper is to catalogue and critique the range of methods and models relevant to techno-economic analysis for PV systems in the context of distributed, grid-connected buildings. This is accomplished by; developing a system modeling framework for prosumer PV investment analysis, reviewing relevant energy, economics, and finance literature to identify mathematical models which can be applied, and cataloging the use of the reviewed techniques in the relevant literature. Also included is a qualitative discussion of the benefits and practicality of the review techniques, where Monte Carlo analysis is highlighted as an exemplary method. This review is useful as a reference for analysts, researchers, and engineers developing PV integration solutions for building energy systems in a post early adopter PV market.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017
Keywords
Solar PV, Prosumer, Economics, Investment, Modeling
National Category
Software Engineering Energy Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208714 (URN)10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.232 (DOI)000401492900096 ()2-s2.0-85007453567 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 2017-06-12

Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2019-11-19Bibliographically approved
3. Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part two - Application
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part two - Application
2017 (English)In: Renewable & sustainable energy reviews, ISSN 1364-0321, E-ISSN 1879-0690, Vol. 74, p. 1394-1404Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Part One in this two part paper identified Monte Carlo analysis as an improved approach over traditional deterministic techno-economic methods for solar PV prosumers in deregulated markets. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo methodology is described and demonstrated through a case study for the Swedish residential sector, which includes a review of relevant market, climate, and policy conditions, their use in determining inputs, and the probabilistic results. The probability of profitability (PoP) is introduced as an indicator in conjunction with result distributions. The results show that under current policy conditions, Swedish PV investors with well positioned buildings have a 71% chance of making a 3% real return on investment, and virtually no chance of losing their original investment. Without subsidies the PoP drops to 8%. In none of the simulated cases was any of the original investment lost. The PoP is most sensitive to the capital subsidy and the uncertainty of market based, long-term support is less critical to the chances of a successful investment. Given the current market conditions, Swedish PV prosumers can expect a return on investment. The decision to install will also depend on the probability of achieving their desired profitability, which Monte Carlo analysis quantifies well.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017
Keywords
Solar PV, Techno-economic, Monte Carlo, Investment analysis, Probabilities, Sweden
National Category
Energy Systems Software Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-208715 (URN)10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.010 (DOI)000401492900097 ()2-s2.0-85015440142 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 2017-06-12

Available from: 2017-06-12 Created: 2017-06-12 Last updated: 2019-11-19Bibliographically approved
4. In-depth techno-economic analysis of PV/Thermal plus ground source heat pump systems for multi-family houses in a heating dominated climate
Open this publication in new window or tab >>In-depth techno-economic analysis of PV/Thermal plus ground source heat pump systems for multi-family houses in a heating dominated climate
2019 (English)In: Solar Energy, ISSN 0038-092X, E-ISSN 1471-1257, Vol. 190, p. 44-62Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The electrification of buildings is a promising pathway to the decarbonization of cities. This is a parametric study of the technical and economic performance of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems with series connected solar PV/thermal (PVT) collectors. The focus is on multi-family houses (MFH) in the heating dominated climate of Sweden, where land restrictions for boreholes or noise restrictions on air heat exchangers limit the heat pump market. System efficiency and lifecycle cost results are generated using a holistic and detailed systems model in TRNSYS with 20 year simulations. The results show that PVT can reduce borehole length by 18% or spacing by 50% while maintaining an equivalent seasonal performance factor to systems without PVT. The cost for PVT + GSHP systems is higher than a traditionally designed PV + GSHP, however this does not take into account the value of the land area saved by PVT, which can be up to 89%. The reduction in land enabled by PVT has the potential to increase penetration of GSHP in MFH and promote solar energy diffusion in high latitude markets.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2019
Keywords
Electrify everything, Systems analysis, Solar assisted heat pump, Solar energy, Solar hybrid
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263366 (URN)10.1016/j.solener.2019.07.080 (DOI)000487167800005 ()2-s2.0-85073701491 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20191118

Available from: 2019-11-18 Created: 2019-11-18 Last updated: 2019-11-19Bibliographically approved

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